Long term falling wedge, could take us past 100k if it plays out

2023년 3월 14일

here’s the case for a bullish scenario
1. RSI and MACD downtrends have broken on the weekly
2. Strong rejection from the bulls at the 20 week MA and 200 day MA. Most of the time, finding support at the 20 week moving average leads to a bull run, with only a few failures
3. Golden cross on the daily time frame, we still have no historical data on what a death cross means on the weekly, however in the S&P weekly death crosses usually signal an end to the near run. May or may not apply for bitcoin. I have a feeling it could be a fakeout, but like I said, we’ve never had a death cross on the weekly before. Some say it could signal the mother of all bear markets, some say it will be a clear fakeout in hindsight
4. We have a falling wedge starting from late 2021 and it appears to have broken above it than below it
5. Fib retracement targets take bitcoin up to 93k at the 1.272 and well into the 100ks in the 1.618

Fundamentals
1. US weaponization of the financial markets could indicate a lack of trust in the fiat institution. This could be a nothing burger, we won’t know until hindsight
2. Bitcoin volatility is decreasing by the year. You can see this on the log charts. Bitcoins #1 argument against a store of value is its volatility, however we can see the volatility slowly dropping off. I predict one day we will see it’s distinct bull and bear market cycles become much less distinct, with much less blow off tops and much less black swans. Once it starts to better resemble gold, I think people will start to trust it more. Right now people are thinking this whole crypto thing is a fad, and will eventually burst to $0. They’ve been saying that forever. Time is proving them wrong. If we break to the upside, while also losing volatility, then the case for crypto being a high volatility moonboy asset will be nullified.


This is my bullish scenario. There’s a lot of fear in the markets right now. We’ve been holding our breaths for months staring at Fed news. Hopefully this is not a bull trap and a new uptrend has begun. Long term I hope to see less mega bull and Mega bear cycles, in bitcoin at least. 150k is a reasonable target for the next cycle top, which will prove to investors that bitcoin is slowly but surely stabilizing. In the mean time I hope to make some good money on the come up.

I also have some bearish scenarios that I’ve posted. Human activity is unpredictable, and we all know the market doesn’t care for what we hope. I hope one day in hindsight This bullish case will be proven right. Hindsight is always 20/20