BTC looking BEARISH

2021년 7월 25일

Despite the recent bullishness of Bitcoin from 29.4k up to 34.6k, the medium term outlook seems bearish so far.

In this analysis I have 2 scenarios, one bullish and one bearish, the bearish being the more likely at the moment imo.

Bearish View:

It seems that the price is forming a 'Flat ABC' correction to the upside (shown by the orange ABC labels).
According to Elliott Waves, a flat usually will form a 1:1 relationship between waves A and C. If this occurs,
then orange wave C should end at around 37k and then reverse to the down side. This should occur if we even reach
these prices.

If this occurs, then we should see a reversal to the downside and test the lower trendline and the lower green box.

Bullish View:

(More unlikely in my opinion (imo)). We break beyond 37k and the down sloping trendline where the upper green box is.
The target for this is 41k - 43k. This estimate is by multiplying orange wave A by 1.618 and adding that length on the
end of orange wave B. This means that wave C would extend and be equal to 1.618 * length of wave A.

The reason why I think wave A will be a 1:1 extension and not a 1:1.618 extension is that wave A formed a clear ABC pattern
to the upside rather than a 5 wave structure.

I will update if this idea changes.

All the best! Please drop a comment if you have any different ideas!