BTC Prj.2019.P03E05, Finding the bottom.V2

2019년 7월 17일

Observations>

On the WEEKLY Chart (looking long)
> NVT indicator on the edge of the critical line of 150. Historically once this is broken below, there has been a strong down trend
> 10 EMA is being touched, if this is broken, it will be a temporarily a bearish sign, as it will the 1st time this year to be broken.
> MACD heading towards bearish trend, histogram dropping in levels
> Current price at the 0.382 level, a critical support level.
> The Weekly candle support line is 8900 as a major support line, complemented by the position of the 2/1 fib fan

On the DAILY Chart (looking long)
> NVT indicator has dropped below the critical line of 150. Historically once this is broken, there has been a strong down trend.
> RSI is heading south towards oversold region...still has more room to go.
> The 55 EMA will act as resistance and the next level of support is the 100 EMA, complemented or acknowledged as well by the 2/1 fib fan.
> MACD histogram is looking bearish strong
> Momentum to the down side slowed down by the current strong support level held at 9200 to 9500 range, it could be either a consolidation or an accumulation area.

On the 4 HRLY Chart
> The bounce or follow through looks week, no large volume (32 min left).
> 9K is the last level of support for this juncture.
> The bounce seemed to be premature at 9214 price.
> RSI shows no bullish divergence, and other indicators don't give any short term direction for bullish.
< 10 EMA looks long away as a resistance and support at 9400 looks week on the 1 HRLY chart.

LOWER time frames
> 1 hrly chart, 10 EMA acting as resistance
> RSI lingering in the bottom layer of the chart, bearish still
> ADX, DI looks bearish
> Volume looks disappointing

BTC dominance:
Its hit an all time high for this year, signified by the red resistance line. 69.6%
Looking for a drop in BTC dominance to the 10 EMA, so a slight advantage for the short term for the ALTs.
Next dominance target, 76%, so more bad news for ALT holders.

Conclusion: Looking for a bounce off 8900 to 9000 and another rally up before heading down to 7500 to 8200 Range.

WEEKLY Chart:


DAILY Chart:


4 HRLY Chart:




1 HRLY and 2 HRLY Chart:


CME BTC Future Chart:


BTC Dominance:

2019년 7월 17일

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Sometimes visual aid helps significantly, Heikin Ashi chart.

2019년 7월 17일

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The 4 HRLY Chart view. Low 9K will not last long as a support.

2019년 7월 17일

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Hitting a main resistance. We need to see an open and close above this for the next stage which is above the 21 MA on the 4 HRLY

2019년 7월 17일

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Just for the record, we did have a H&S perfectly on the mark where it dropped.

2019년 7월 17일

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progress update: 55 EMA on the HRLY still resistance

2019년 7월 17일

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2019년 7월 17일

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2019년 7월 17일

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2019년 7월 18일

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Final words for this post.
So far none of the key levels have been passed decisively or past. Hence still a down trend and target is the 8500 to 8700 where I'm planning to go long...if all things look good. Note, there might be a few bounces along the way like 8900.
This daily with the 55 EMA and 50 SMA has not had a open and close above it, until this happens, I don't see a change to the current direction nor my bias to the downside.

2019년 7월 18일

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I believe I found the formation its becoming, if you want to know, respond to me and I will share.