Coiled Spring

Bitcoin is holding structure on the high time frames, currently reclaiming the $90k level after testing the lows. I’ve got my weighted average bands on the chart and price is respecting them so far. You can see on the daily chart how we’ve just poked back above the latest FOMC anchor (the blue line) and are squeezing between that and the breakdown AVWAP overhead. I try not to preempt levels though, I only really care about them once price actually reacts there.

Macro wise, things look decent. Yield curves like the 5y-03m and 10y-03m are positive. We’re seeing a bull steepening, not the textbook version since the 2y is still lower than the 3m, but not a cause for concern.

Other signals I’m tracking:

VIX is stable.

USDJPY is trending up but getting close to resistance, so that’s one to watch.

MOVE index is chilling, down at 63% which is historically a good zone for us.

DXY is high at 98 but trending down.

Credit spreads are super low at 2.84, so no stress there.

TGA is pivoting down now too.

Real yields aren’t doing much since nominals and breakevens are falling together.

Current pricing suggests no cut at the next FOMC, which is fine. But if a cut comes as a surprise that would be very interesting to say the least.