BTC - It's going to get worse before it will get better

2023년 7월 31일

#BTC Technical Analysis on the Daily.

Hello Sublime Traders,

As the volumes seem to be spiking at regular intervals (mainly mid week), chose to look at the daily for this one as it lets us get a better overview on what is happening to BTC.

For better understanding of the chart, the price action is split in 3 areas.

Area A: Horizontal range with two liquidity grabs on both sides, eventually leaving the formation on the UPSIDE after forming a 4 candle bullish pattern similar to that of a morning star formation.

Area B: Descending channel with a trend slope of -27 degrees (unsustainable) taht eventually left the formation on the UPSIDE following a liquidity grab just below the 200MA.

Area C: Still forming, started out as a horizontal range that has been broken on the downside also forming an order block along the way. The current slope is extremely high(note that angle depends on chart resolution).

Because we are currently in Area C let's develop it further:
On the lower side we have a strong resistance area at 27K, where the 200MA and the 0.66 Fib meet. Once again the relationship between 0.33 and 0.66 fibs can prove to be handy like it was so many times before. According to our fib theory and because the price action is closed just below the 0.33 retracement we can assume that the price will follow the trail towards it's symmetrical peer, the 0.66.

On the other hand, we also see that the angle of the descending slope is pretty high and that it could be broken without much effort.

On the upper side, we have the last OB that formed, almost touched by a wick but not yet mitigated, meaning there is still LIQUIDITY in that area, we will note this area as a High Resistance Area. High compared to all the other candles in AREA C.



Relationship between the three areas

Even if Area C seems to be corrected, the three segments in the chart are pointing on the upside, with each area being like a step in the right direction and the GENERAL TREND being bullish.


Personal take:

If we were to describe AREA C in a few words it would be: "It's going to get worse before it will get better"


There are a lot of chances that the Downside target will be met and a continuation on the upside will resume.


That's it for today's analysis, don't hesitate to ask any questions regarding this analysis.