both of these are equally probable, but i do personally prefer this one, as it gives us a beautiful opportunity to trade up from 13->35k, then short it back down to 6. this move would allow many people to double, triple, or even quadruple their capital - hence giving them more buying power when the time comes for the long term hold.
----
both ideas take us down to 5.9k. i know you probably don't wanna hear this, but it's not me making these targets up. the chart tells the story, and i am merely the interpreter.