What Elliot wave tell us about the next move

업데이트됨

By taking a close look at the chart we can see we are making a possible wxyxz correction consisting of 3 zigzag 5-3-5 waves, From what I see we are in wave 2 of the final 5 waves toward the upside, and the target is probably 65-67k, after that, in theory, we should continue the previous downtrend toward 45k
Possible positions are buying now with a target of 66k and stop loss at 57k( which is where wave 2 goes below wave 1, invalidating this 5 wave). Or wait and short at 65-66k with a target of 45k with stop loss at the previous high of around 70k

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Closer view of Wave W

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Wave x

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Wave y

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Second x wave

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Current Z wave

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Still waiting for the next move , if the chart is correction we should start wave 3 in 1-2 days at max

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Possible bounce areas are one of these fib levels 59700,59,58 , target is somewhere around 65-67 depending on the strength of next wave

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We are also having 3 rejections from Gan and monthly resistance, but since this is the weekend I don't think it's very concerning we can punch through it soon ( well ofcourse if Isreal doesn't start a new war )

액티브 트레이드

Nice reaction as expected, opened long from 59 area, let's see what will happen

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Right now we are creating two 5 waves at the same time, high chance of a breakout soon, I'm still holding my longs from 59k

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retesting Gann lines one more time, I hope we see a breakout this time

매매 수동청산

Closed long positions from 59k in profit , we have bad CPI. It seems like a failed 5 wave to me , we might head back to 55k from here

액티브 트레이드

After closing my longs I opened another short position at 61k a couple of hours ago , A failed 5 wave is a signal itself, it shows extreme selling pressure by individuals who don't care about charts.
We are also having 6 rejection at the monthly resistance and one rejection at Gann circle , looks like a very bearish structure to me

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I expect to reach at least 0.786 fib level at 56500 or the lower monthly line at 55k , if both of them fail to hold the price, we will see 48k again, invalidation of my idea is going back above 61400

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It seems like an ordinary wave 2 to me as long as it is below 61k, the target is still 55k-48k

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Adding more to my short at 59750

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People always love to blame manipulation, .... but It was clear that we were going down, only the time was unknown

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bounce happened at 0.786 fib level around 66500, I didn't expect such a fast and strong bounce, but overall I still think we still need to go much lower.
For now, area around the previous high at 60k is very important as long we are below it, the chance of going down still much higher, I'm still holding my shorts from 61k and 59750, will probably short more if price moves near 59k

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entered another short position at 58700 where weekly candle opens

매매 수동청산

There is some chance that we reach 62-64k here , chart looks more bullish than before to me, closing all my shorts from 59.5 and 61k at 58.3k

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By bullish, I mean we have 2 gann at play right now, one pointing toward 48k (yellow one) and one toward 43k(white one) . both will end before October
currently, we are seeing some reaction from the yellow one and there is the possibility of a bounce here

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by bouncing from here we can break the downtrend daily channel and the target will be somewhere around 62 or 64k depending on how you draw it

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There are two scenarios here, we go directly to 48-43k from here or we first pump toward 62-64k and then go to 48-43k, the target for both cases is below 50k. I won't enter long from here only looking for short positions

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well bounce happened but it immediately dropped from 61k! that's why I said I don't look for longs but just short opportunities, this is a completely manipulated chart, they only waiting for pumps to dump their bags on poor retail traders

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Seems like a good opportunity to buy, it needs to retest some key area above , buying some at 59.6k will sell them at 61k stop loss 59k

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I put circle on areas that need retest

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Considering the number of big orders that were filled today , my guess is we will reach 64k in the coming days, well unless those sellers know sth and selling ahead of news like e.g Iran Israel war , I'm buying more at 59k

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