Bitcoin Breaks $67K: Bullish Momentum Points to $70K Target

10월 17일

Daily Trend and Momentum



Daily Moving Averages and Volume Profile



Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum on both the daily (1D) and 4-hour (4H) timeframes. The price is trading above $67,600, having successfully broken through key resistance levels around $67,000 and pushing towards the psychological $70,000 mark. The RSI(4H) is at 73.44, signaling overbought conditions, but the MACD(4H) remains bullish, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. On the daily chart, the RSI is at 67.81 and has not yet reached extreme overbought conditions, providing room for additional upside potential. The MACD(1D) line continues to diverge positively from the signal line, with increasing green histogram bars, indicating strengthening momentum. Price action remains well above the supportive 50-day EMA at $62,403 and the 200-day EMA at $60,377, reaffirming the longer-term positive trend.

News Impact:

Recent crypto market news has been largely supportive of the rally. The market is bolstered by the surge in Bitcoin dominance to over 58%, signaling Bitcoin's leadership in the broader crypto market. Additionally, there has been no major negative news regarding regulations or institutional interest that would hinder the growth of Bitcoin. The consistent rise in Bitcoin futures open interest points to continued institutional involvement, further supporting the uptrend.

Market Sentiment:

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 73, reflecting a 'Greed' sentiment, which aligns with the bullish market environment. TradingView ideas predominantly forecast further gains, with many setting targets near or above the $70,000 mark. A few community members are cautious about potential short-term corrections, especially near $69,000, but the overall sentiment remains positive. Analysts project Bitcoin to push higher, potentially reaching the $70,000–$72,000 range in the near future.

Conclusion:

With the ongoing bullish momentum and the strong technical structure supporting further upside, maintaining the current long position is the best course of action. Although there are overbought signals in the 4H timeframe, the broader 1D trend remains favorable for continued gains. Setting a stop-loss around $66,500 would help manage downside risk while aiming to capitalize on the next leg towards $70,000.


Decision: MAINTAIN LONG

Confidence Score: 0.89

10월 17일

코멘트

Updated News Impact:

Recent news continues to support the idea of sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin. Asian private wealth managers are increasing their exposure to crypto. Additionally, there has been significant demand anticipation, with institutional involvement, such as Bitcoin Futures open interest hitting new all-time highs. Gold tokenization via Bitcoin's blockchain further solidifies the perception of Bitcoin as digital gold, reinforcing its investment use case.

Updated Market Sentiment:

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 71, indicating 'Greed,' which aligns with prevailing bullish sentiment. Furthermore, analyses from the trading community show a general expectation of continued gains, with short-term upside targets ranging between $68,000–$73,000. Analysts caution about potential mild corrections but maintain the larger trend is bullish, with a re-test of the $70,000 psychological level highly anticipated.

Confidence Score : 0.87

10월 18일

코멘트

Updated News Impact:

Positive macroeconomic factors and crypto-specific news support Bitcoin's continued upward momentum. Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows and the possibility of favorable political outcomes, such as pro-crypto U.S. election policies, provide a supportive backdrop. Additionally, recent reports from CoinDesk highlight bullish inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with notable accumulation of supply—which should help sustain buying pressure. Broader market news points to continued optimism, as equities and commodities like gold are rising along with Bitcoin.

Updated Market Sentiment:

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reflects 'Greed' at 73, suggesting a high level of market optimism, though traders remain cautious at these resistance levels. The TradingView community remains bullish, with some ideas indicating a potential breakthrough beyond $70,000, while a few are watching for a potential correction following consolidation near current levels. Most analysts maintain an overall bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

10월 21일

매매 수동청산

Decision: Close Long

Technical Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart (4H), Bitcoin has seen a significant decline in momentum with the MACD showing a bearish crossover, reinforced by declining histogram values, and the RSI(4H) dropping to 42, leaning towards oversold conditions. Additionally, price action shows a clear breakout below short-term support levels, weakening any immediate bullish prospects. On the daily (1D) chart, while the longer-term uptrend is still intact with Bitcoin above both the 50-day ($63,259) and 200-day ($60,684) EMAs, the recent rejection just below $70,000 indicates strong resistance around this level, and the RSI(1D) at 61.2 suggests that there might still be room for a deeper pullback before a renewed upward move. This pullback may present opportunities to re-enter long positions later at more favorable conditions.

News Impact:

Recent news reveals some mixed sentiment in global markets. Bitcoin experienced a 3% drop as U.S. sellers drove prices below key support levels at 67K. This could lead to further selling pressure in the short term. Additionally, while Bitcoin hit an all-time high in hashrate, the broader crypto market sentiment remains cautious with external market influence, such as the Trump election volatility, leading to increased uncertainty.

Market Sentiment:

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 72 ('Greed'), indicating that while the general sentiment remains positive, a correction could be imminent based on historical tendencies for market pullbacks under these conditions. Furthermore, many TradingView ideas reflect expectations of short-term corrections before any further rally, with traders identifying key demand zones below $65,000.

Conclusion:

Given the bearish short-term technical signals, including the key MACD crossover and weakened momentum, alongside news-induced market volatility, it is prudent to close the long position to preserve gains. The potential pullback toward more robust support levels in the $66,000-$65,000 range provides an opportunity to reassess the market for future long positions. A breakout further below $65,000 could indicate deeper risks.

Confidence Score: 0..78

10월 22일

코멘트

Decision: STAY OUT OF THE MARKET

Technical Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows weakening momentum with a bearish MACD(4H) crossover, as the histogram continues to decline further into negative territory. The RSI(4H) is at 42.85, reflecting bearish pressure and still indicating room for further downside without being oversold. Bitcoin recently rejected resistance around $69,000 and is now trading near $67,252, facing potential further downside risk near its next support level of around $65,000. While on the daily (1D) chart, Bitcoin remains above the 50-day ($63,425) and 200-day ($60,752) EMAs, a bearish divergence is visible in RSI(1D), which has started to decline below 70. The MACD(1D) histogram is flattening, indicating loss of upward momentum and potential consolidation or decline.

News Impact:

Recent market news reveals mixed signals. There are broad concerns around global macroeconomic uncertainty, with U.S. elections approaching, weighing heavily on investors' risk appetite. Additionally, a data breach affecting the crypto platform Transak has sparked some negative sentiment. However, key bullish developments, such as Bitcoin hashrate reaching an all-time high and optimism around institutional interest, continue to bolster the long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment:

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 70 (Greed), indicating significant optimism, which could suggest the possibility of a correction in the near term. At the same time, commentary from TradingView users highlights caution, with some expecting further retracements before any sustained upward movement. A key short-term support level near $65,000 is commonly cited.

Conclusion:

Although Bitcoin remains technically bullish at a broader level, the short-term indicators signal weakening momentum and the potential for further downside. With strong resistance encountered near $69,000 and sentiment favoring caution, it is prudent to stay out of the market for the time being. Waiting for a clearer reversal signal or a retest of the support zone around $65,000 would provide a better opportunity for re-entry.

Confidence Score: 0.72