TROUBLE!
Despite buying back in (Heavily)
The bear argument needs addressing.
$18000 absolutely needs to hold
Several stages to this, first, TA
So….
- Weak double bottom with most of the action happening on the lower side.
- also can be viewed as a right Triangle (Continuation: target 14-11)
- despite reversal divergence on all indicators on high time frames (usually very bullish sign for me) it is realistic to assume that a brake to 13 would still register reversal divergence on these indicators (happened in ‘18), which means that they cannot accurately predict a reversal unless they are congruent on all time frames, and even then, if say the RSI hits a new lower low, that is a very bad sign in a bear market because it implies lower lows on future price proportional to the time frame being viewed.
But, for the record, MACD, RSI, VOLUME, TD SEQUNTIAL, F&G INDEX, they all point north.
But…
Price will not reverse until a lower price and higher RSI value is achieved, especially on high time frames, which has happened, but…meh
Overlapped is the UUS index DXY. As you can see, BTC acts exponentially to DXY value. DXY has been in an uptrend, bear flag, for sometime. I still believe $112 is the upside of this pattern.
Now fundamentals and my opinion.
Therefore I expect a pull back on the DXY, if I was to read TA alone, which normally I do, because I find it much more accurate then media. After all, the TA is the psychology of the market. I’m saying DXY is due for a pullback. However, due to the parabolic-ness of the US move, I’m concerned. It’s in a bullish pattern breakout position, but if you ask me, it’s way over-hyped, you still can’t eat dollars and they aren’t backed by anything, and not just US dollar, any currency.
In fact, the irony here is that I’m comparing a hypothetical thing (BTC) with a hypothetical thing (UUS) for which neither are actually backed by anything. Therefore anything is more valuable then either. Funny fact. Of course, I implement this idea into my trading strategy.
TA alone is bullish, but world economics is complicated, and from a traders perspective, this reversal pattern is weak. Therefore, even if it does reverse, I’ll be shorting between $30-$50, because it becoming clearer that we are likely to see 10k in the mid future.
I’m holding my longs because I’m short term bullish, but I am mid term bearish… and I hate saying that, I’m just applying the lesson learnt in 2018.
Things to consider.
- if dollar up, then BTC and everything else is down
- up inflation = down unemployment, down inflation = up unemployment
- ever thought to yourself “of my, this is what the world has come to…” yeah… that’s the bubble that’s popping right now. And considering BTC can move 17% when the UUS moved 1.5%, that’s a concerning fact as a crypto trader.
So take it easy,
The best investment is educating yourself, and the next best investment is useable assets. It’s time to tighten up.
If 18 brakes, I sell all crypto.
The GOOD NEWS:
- BTC bellow the 200MA, might come back
- RSI primed for breakout
- loving the volume on this dip
Clearly playing both sides of this reversal
The bear argument needs addressing.
$18000 absolutely needs to hold
Several stages to this, first, TA
So….
- Weak double bottom with most of the action happening on the lower side.
- also can be viewed as a right Triangle (Continuation: target 14-11)
- despite reversal divergence on all indicators on high time frames (usually very bullish sign for me) it is realistic to assume that a brake to 13 would still register reversal divergence on these indicators (happened in ‘18), which means that they cannot accurately predict a reversal unless they are congruent on all time frames, and even then, if say the RSI hits a new lower low, that is a very bad sign in a bear market because it implies lower lows on future price proportional to the time frame being viewed.
But, for the record, MACD, RSI, VOLUME, TD SEQUNTIAL, F&G INDEX, they all point north.
But…
Price will not reverse until a lower price and higher RSI value is achieved, especially on high time frames, which has happened, but…meh
Overlapped is the UUS index DXY. As you can see, BTC acts exponentially to DXY value. DXY has been in an uptrend, bear flag, for sometime. I still believe $112 is the upside of this pattern.
Now fundamentals and my opinion.
Therefore I expect a pull back on the DXY, if I was to read TA alone, which normally I do, because I find it much more accurate then media. After all, the TA is the psychology of the market. I’m saying DXY is due for a pullback. However, due to the parabolic-ness of the US move, I’m concerned. It’s in a bullish pattern breakout position, but if you ask me, it’s way over-hyped, you still can’t eat dollars and they aren’t backed by anything, and not just US dollar, any currency.
In fact, the irony here is that I’m comparing a hypothetical thing (BTC) with a hypothetical thing (UUS) for which neither are actually backed by anything. Therefore anything is more valuable then either. Funny fact. Of course, I implement this idea into my trading strategy.
TA alone is bullish, but world economics is complicated, and from a traders perspective, this reversal pattern is weak. Therefore, even if it does reverse, I’ll be shorting between $30-$50, because it becoming clearer that we are likely to see 10k in the mid future.
I’m holding my longs because I’m short term bullish, but I am mid term bearish… and I hate saying that, I’m just applying the lesson learnt in 2018.
Things to consider.
- if dollar up, then BTC and everything else is down
- up inflation = down unemployment, down inflation = up unemployment
- ever thought to yourself “of my, this is what the world has come to…” yeah… that’s the bubble that’s popping right now. And considering BTC can move 17% when the UUS moved 1.5%, that’s a concerning fact as a crypto trader.
So take it easy,
The best investment is educating yourself, and the next best investment is useable assets. It’s time to tighten up.
If 18 brakes, I sell all crypto.
The GOOD NEWS:
- BTC bellow the 200MA, might come back
- RSI primed for breakout
- loving the volume on this dip
Clearly playing both sides of this reversal
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