Do we pick a bottom? Trade Plan Falling Wedge 21 Jan

2022년 1월 21일

Environment
* Macro: Downtrend (falling wedge, short resistance, look for test of support of wedge.
* Swing: Eyeing daily support for possible bounce. Look for continuation and signs of weakness, we might get a bounce now some leverage is flushed out and whales filled their belly. This could mean the whales that missed out still need a small nudge down and we consolidate for a few days or we go back up. Don't rule out dead-cat bounce to top of falling wedge.
* Day: possible reversal (look for day longs when approaching lower levels on divergence, VPFR & golden ratio, or continuation signs)
* Scalping: bull flags on lower timeframes with MA and vwap 1-12m

Top down analysis: 07:20 UTC+1
* D: Money Flow deep in the red, RSI's low, VWAP down, Stocastic about to cross, volume rising. Divergence possible, but unconfirmed. Bullish outlook, bounce on important daily level and close to macro falling wedge
* 12h: same story as D, Bullish outlook
* 6h: vwap pointing up, after big dump divergence is stil valid but needs a push up, RSI stronger than yesterday bouncing very low below 10 , volume spiked on the way down, potentially a flush out of weaker hands, neutral outlook, we have to hold daily support or HVN below.
* 4h: very big divergence showing, we need big downside continuation to not get a juicy div. Q: Will it be dead cat or continue? Work both sides of the book.
* 2h: momentum curving for a div 2h bounce, bull volume clearly defending bears, vwap and money flow too RSI very low
* 1h: no div but very low RSI, VWAP working its way up, green dot selling pressure has stopped
* 3-24m: most lower timeframe divergences have played out. I’m looking for one more to get some big swing positions. A bounce back on the daily or a bit below on the HVN would pick a great bottom for now!