[BTC] Possible Bounce Top

2020년 3월 31일

After major crash on 3/12-13, BTC has nice +80% bounce.
A possible bounce pattern is double or triple top.
A nice example is 2018/2/19 - 2018/3/5:


Now 6,900 is working as resistance with 2 rejections (3/20 and 3/25).
BTC is about to try it again.
Knowing we are still in daily downtrend, I am looking for a trade for the triple top pattern, for the stop lose is pretty clear (close above resistance).

Entry: 6,850 - 6950
Stop: 7,100
Target: retest upper 5K.

Possible upside move scenario:
1. Price keep go up, people reclaim the 'halving' story.
2. Stock keeps bouncing, people buy in 'bull is back' story, and crypto correlated with it.
3. 40-day mini cycle suggests more up side space.
4. It 'looks' like accumulation of Wyckoff theory. (Though accumulation usually takes time within range bound, meaning we need more time before price taken off.)

With both up and down scenarios in my mind, I won't get attached to future price movement.
And in an volatile market such as recently, I took profit / stop lose aggressively, for things are changing so quickly.
Good luck!

2020년 4월 1일

액티브 트레이드

Even my plan is to short around 6,900, I am acting according to the market.
Here's 1 hour chart:


After trend line break confirmed, I've take action to enter short position at 6,450, with stop lose at recent high: 6,600.

2020년 4월 2일

노트

I close all short position last night when I saw this pattern emerging:


Thanks for CryptoISO's reminder: twitter.com/crypto_iso/status/1245384360745984000?s=20

If you are following this trade, sorry I forgot to update in time.
Trading in real life is like this, you make trade and keep watching for incoming new information, and act accordingly.

Now I am back to my original idea:
Entry: 6,850 - 6950
Stop: 7,100 - 7,200
Target: upper 5K.

2020년 4월 2일

노트

My approach to this trade is to watch for 2 days, see if 7K resistance breaks. If it holds, then I enter short position.

2020년 4월 3일

노트

Add another short position @ Daily EMA36: 6980.

2020년 4월 4일

노트

Took profit, waiting for another short setup around 6,900.

2020년 4월 5일

노트

REMINDER: If BTC close daily candle above 7K, I will stop out short position.

And start looking for weekly top, knowing BTC is due for a weekly lower high:


BTC already seen ~90% bounce, next week or so a nice bounce top trade will show itself. I will be looking for 4H/12H/1D downtrend for the sign.

2020년 4월 6일

노트

BTC challenging 0.5 Fib Retracement for 2nd time, let's see how this work in order to decide my next step:

2020년 4월 7일

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