Bitcoin - How the cycle end's going to go down

This idea examines the Fib relationships that have already played out this cycle, combined with the 1.618 curve obviously in motion to arrive at a likely cycle top.

The most likely cycle top is in the vicinity of $170k, I give this idea a 50% chance of playing out. the path to 170k likely involves a correction around $150k and drop to meet the rising 1.618 curve - somewhere around $138k. The final blow-off would then reach $170k

The 2nd most likely possibility is a top at $150k and an extended distribution there with no blow-off top of significance. I give this idea a 25% chance of playing out.

The 3rd possibility, which cannot yet be invalidated despite all the macro evidence being to the contrary, is that we are topping and in full distribution in the $105k-$125k range. This chart shows some confluence for that idea, and of course it aligns with 4-year cycle theory and eclipses - and so I will give it also a 25% chance of playing out.

That said - whilst we are clearly distributing, with OG whales selling enthusiastically, I do not believe this is THE distribution. Rather I believe it to be a transfer from OG whales fixed to the 4-year cycle ideology to smart(er) money, predominately TradFi.