High Timeframe Profit Taking? Caution for Bulls!

After a strong run-up, the 4H BTC chart is showing the first signs of bullish exhaustion. With news breaking of a legacy whale offloading 80k BTC through Galaxy Digital, caution is warranted. Volatility is likely. Short-term downside is possible, but watch for dips to be aggressively bought if broader market structure remains bullish.

Short-term Support: 115k–113k zone (recent consolidation/last swing lows).
Major Resistance: 125k+ (recent top, failed to close above).

Momentum: QQE MOD histogram has just flipped negative after a multi-week rally, and RSI is declining, but no panic selling yet.

Possible Plays

1. Short-Term Cautious Short

Entry: On a failed bounce to 119k–120k, or any bearish rejection candle on the 4H.

Targets: 115k, then 113k.

Stop: Above 121.5k (last minor high).

Rationale: Momentum fading, whale news, and risk of further distribution.

2. “Buy the Fear” Scalps

Entry: If price flushes quickly into 113k–115k support zone, look for reversal candles or positive divergence on RSI/QQE for quick scalps.

Targets: 117k, 119k (previous support becomes resistance).

Stop: Tight below 112.5k (clear break of structure = get out).

Rationale: Market has absorbed large unlocks before; panic drops often get bought in uptrends.

Risk Factors

If market interprets the news as old/unimpactful (OTC handled, already priced in), a fast bounce could occur.

If whales continue to dump or spot selling accelerates, deeper correction to 110k or lower is possible.

Watch US stock indexes and macro for correlation spikes (risk-off can accelerate BTC drops).