202422 - a weekly price action after hour update - bitcoin
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls need strong close above 67000 for 70000 and probably retest of ath. They tried 4 times now and failed. Market is also a wedge top on a lower time frame. Bulls have no good arguments around 67000.
comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish.
I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range.
current market cycle: Small bull trend (see channel) inside bigger trading range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: If bulls want another leg up for the ath, market should not drop below 68000 again. If it does, today was a lower high double top and we will trade sideways or down to break the bull channel. If bulls keep it above, their next target is the high of last week at 71954 and above the obvious ath magnet at 73805.
bear case: Bears see this rally done and the two legged correction missing the second leg down, which they want to get below 68000, break outside the bull channel and test the daily ema around 67500. I expect that Tuesday will give a decisive answer on this one. Right now I think the bears are slightly less favored.
short term: Neutral between 68000 - 72000. Market needs to break this range for higher or lower prices.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
chart update: Adjusted bull channel, wave series and added possible two legged correction.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls need strong close above 67000 for 70000 and probably retest of ath. They tried 4 times now and failed. Market is also a wedge top on a lower time frame. Bulls have no good arguments around 67000.
comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish.
I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range.
current market cycle: Small bull trend (see channel) inside bigger trading range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: If bulls want another leg up for the ath, market should not drop below 68000 again. If it does, today was a lower high double top and we will trade sideways or down to break the bull channel. If bulls keep it above, their next target is the high of last week at 71954 and above the obvious ath magnet at 73805.
bear case: Bears see this rally done and the two legged correction missing the second leg down, which they want to get below 68000, break outside the bull channel and test the daily ema around 67500. I expect that Tuesday will give a decisive answer on this one. Right now I think the bears are slightly less favored.
short term: Neutral between 68000 - 72000. Market needs to break this range for higher or lower prices.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
chart update: Adjusted bull channel, wave series and added possible two legged correction.
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