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Bitcoin. Evil plan is still alive! Praise the lord!

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First of all for people that don't bother reading descriptions: it's not 100% sure we get this amazing entry. But if we do, it's awesome!

Thank you bulls, thank you sooo much. I need you to make money, without you, I couldn't make any money.
Or as Daryl Guppy would say: youtube.com/watch?v=QInB6iExaxw&feature=youtu.be&t=1787

Talking about Daryl Guppy here's our safety cushion:

Even if we go up it's highly unlikely we just go up without getting slapped once first.

The 3 major resistances we would run into are:
- The log downtrend
- Daily 50 MA that has been resistive for a while
- The 8500 weekly level, which was a support right before BTC crashed to 6400 as you can see on the chart, we have this tendency to go test previous supports as resistance after we lose them.

Ok so hope every one has the weekly inside bar in mind too (and monthly one is 6000-11788):

I think right now we need the RSI to cool off before going further up, once we get close to the evil circle, RSI will decide what sizing to put in, if we're way way overbought, can go big and take partial profit on retrace.
I'll update if we go there.

Oh and anyone that goes long now because we "might" get a short entry at 8500, that's bad. Very bad mistake.
Would be sad not to go there now we're so close thought, BUT Bitcoin sure has been disapointing and underperformed (my expectations were pretty low people calling me too bearish and it performed even worse than i expected...).

I had a beautiful chart showing supports being tested after we lose that level but I deleted that chart :(
Here it is grossly:

+++ I have no idea what I'm doing +++

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You should see me XD
Bulls are euphoric, bears are scared and I've never been so euphoric even thought I'm a bear lol I'm listening to loud music and victory dancing <3333
I guess that's what they meant "go against the herd".

I NEED YOU TO MAKE MONEY. THANK YOU THANK YOU.

Let's run into all these resistances and in the old boring investor safety cushion.
And with overbought RSI oooooh yeeees I'm crying I'm so happpyyyyyy

<3333 uuuu
I am very grateful for all the money you give me just shower me in riches!

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Comparing the cushions.

Arrg I really hope we dig a bit further before a significant rejection would be insane if I missed it after spending so much time watching.

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Evil plan was to short *100 leverage at 9500 $ (jk only 25 ALL IN), Bitcoin only went to 9100-9200.
Then it moved down, now the plan is to short at 8500.

Technically we went to the triangle target but...
DO NOT TELL ME I MISSED IT AFTER BREAKING MY NECK BY STANDING IN FRONT OF MY COMPUTER FOR 5 DAYS BECAUSE I WENT OUT 1 HOUR.
With my luck it's highly probable 8087 was the top. FKKKKKFKKK FK.
Just wait and see, FOMO is powerful, price can still get pushed a few hundreds.
I am holding a small short position since 6950 still.
Whatever was planning on day trading moves once we reach 5800 anyway.

:/
It's going to be way juicier to buy on panic anyway. I think?
I forgot to leave a short order at 8000 in case, my mistake.
But the randomness of the timing when the pump happen... Can't be for real -.-

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Whatever...Shorted some now RR is ok. I won't SL thought, just short 10 times more up there, and have a much better RR.

If we go 8450:

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Possible to go all the way up to 8500-9000

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How far up can we go in 1-2 day? History says FOMO can push the price up to our short entry before tomorrow evenning!

Go go bulls all in!
LET'S HAVE SOME COW BURGERS.
TONIGHT, WE DINE IN HELL!

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AAAAH IT ALL FITS PERFECTLY NO MATTER WHAT I LOOK AT ITS ALL THE SAME EVERY WHERE WTF IS THIS.
EVERY SINGLE CHART EVERY TA EVERYTHING IS THE SAME.

9999 ABSOLUTE TOP GOING TO TOP OUT AT 8300-8800 HIGH PROBABILITY 8000-10000 AT THE VERY LEAST.

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7900 Pretty good entry, BUT not good enough to go in big.
If we go 8500+ I'm going to go craaaazzzzyyy I'll go shopping I'll spam short orders like I'm firing MA LAZOR!

Weee probably won't go up there, but a boy can dream right?

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We should get there soon, every thing will depend on the next impulse.

So ok if 5 goes to 8400, then we have this:

Let's see how it develops, but I'm starting to see bearish divergence on the 1HR even 4HR now:

So here are the facts:
- Nothing is 100% sure
- We are in a bear market
- We are going to complete EW under the heaviest resistances for BTC unless we get a miracle on this impulse right now, before we complete 3
- Bearish divergence
- The public has not capitulated, they're still holding their BTC, or I missed something
- The RSI is way overbought
- There's 2 MAJOR resistances MA50 & downtrend, plus a bunch of daily consolidation, weekly closes etc in the way.
- There are alot of rumors of gossip jk this is bull's argument.

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Which zoomed out should end up looking something like this very approximately:

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Here's a good one (originally from CryptoCred, I changed it to fit the actual events), can't post pictures here but it goes like this:

Who would win in a fight?
A/ A vibrant community of crypto enthusiasts and traders
B/ - Trendline since september at 8200 now
- MA50 at 8600
- Log downtrend at 8600
- Daily consolidation zone/resistance at 8500-8800
- MA100 going to 9500 next days (9800 now)
- 9500 major resistance level
- Facts, science, common sense. Cold and hard.

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Getting ready to count my money :D

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Been this far. Might as well go to the downtrend resistance.
Compared to other alts, we're in a channel to victory again!
To the moon! Or the crater.

Hope we go to that line fast.
We should either reject violently or break above and then big move up.

The main baghodler zones are 9500 and 11-12000.

Zoomed out:

Can't really leave PC now...
If it doesn't go too fast, if we go above the line & MA50 I long & close half of my shorts at a loss & short more at 9500 & short more at 11000+

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Bitcoin, safe trade good reward low risk.

It's not impossible we break on our first try if someone decides so, now that liquidity is close to zero. We shouldn't, but if a single order pushes the price up...
Then it will go up, after that thought, every trader will come back trade it, and at least TA will work again.

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Magical internet virtual money is now aboce the downtrend correction which is a bit above what I drew in this idea, right in the evil plan circle prices, we're overbought green green green, we can't go up straight in a straight line so I'm simply shorting here expecting a retrace. My lowest orders past 8500 probably got filled now.
Got short orders till 9000.
Have to keep an eye on this now it's moving.
Be ready to close some shorts and open longs, or take profits on shorts and wait.
Or watch it go up in a straight line overbought without every retracing?

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Waiting on follow up. Going long is too bad for me here.
For now, with the sunny days that just hit us in the past days, are investors going to enthusiastically buy, or is it just FOMO traders now?

Still waiting on a retrace... I'm not expecting this to be the first time ever we simply go up in a straight line.
On retrace I will take profit or at the very least break even on some of my positions and reduce my risk.

If that was wave 3, we could be looking at 9500+ as the next shorting area.
I'll keep some short positions on 8500 and wait for 9500 to add new ones.

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Looking at 2014 we had these pullbacks.
Investors this time are more normies, don't see why I can't get a 20%...
Traders already bought at 8000+ after the blatant pump "it was a short squeeze I'm too lazy to look at the actual data" and pat themselves on the back.

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A 15% retrace from 8500 would put the price at 7200 which was the lowest short entry, I did fomo short (as I said) at 6950 :p I'll take a small loss on that position and profit on the bigger ones. Most position is over 8000.
A 20% retrace = 6800$ I would close a few more shorts there and only leave 8550 open. Or somehting close to that.
Juicy.

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For the longer term, next 1 to 2 months, The important areas are 9500 and even more importantly 10300.

Btw don't comment on my troll elliot waves they're not actually Elliot waves, just cba drawing it line by line. Wave 4 is ABC.

These inside months can last a looong time...

But even inside this there's 15%+ moves to trade. It's all good.

Hope it's not 6 months before we see 4500, I don't see how that would be good for the bulls long term.

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Might as well... (speculation fk EW tbh)

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Ok I'm going out, I got some short orders at 8900 lol.
I would be amazed if we simply keep going up in a straight line, but better be ready for anything.

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Update on the bear flag, now a rising wedge formed and it's looking better because price wicks barely touch the lines, so if we don't go past the upper line it's going to matter. I'd close some shorts at the bottom of it.
Looks like we also (still) have some bearish hidden div on the daily.

Also, on the weekly, bullish hidden divergence.

I feel it's going to take a looong boring while oh gosh.
We had a surprise sunny wheather attack, when this happens do people want to buy or sell?

I wouldn't be too greedy, lock profit when possible & reduce risk.

Would be awesome if we could stay in the rising wedge and every one sees it, would make it easier :)

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Just zoomed out and figured out the 10300 baghodler line is a monthly resistance lol.

Levels I'm watching next:

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Nervous yet?

I'm shorting Buttcoin 0.25 at 6950 0.25 at 7600 and 1.5 at 8100-8600 so I can't lose that much rite?
Going to wait till 9500 to short a couple more, and if we go to 10300 I drop the big load.

Next time I think I won't short so close to bottom or just 0.1 or something. EVen if it goes down better wait for confirmation first lol.

At some point people are going to want to secure their profits right? It's human nature they always do it rite? Rite?

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Set some alerts around 8100 in case we go down, and I'll set a short order on close to 9500 on bitmex when the system will stop being overloaded...

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FOMOers finally took a break and I could set my short order up there. Geez lol.

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If that rising wedge breaks bullish that would just be ridiculous.

Day closes in 20' let's see if something happens there.

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Went up again.
When does the sunny weather that just surprise attacked europe end?
People's emotions are too positive.

Parts of USA get a storm Sunday + other parts rain and China gets a storm Monday. Good, maybe that will change their emotions.

A part of me wants to (re-) post when we should have a bullish bias on BTC when we should be 50-50 and when we should maintain a bear bias.
But at the same time...that would only help emotional people would it? They can't be helped because they would get emotional again the next day.

Where we at now? RSI overbought on all the TF below daily, if we go retest the trendline as support I'll add some long and reduce my short position.
If we keep going up insane mode I'll keep shorting.

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Comparing with 2014 again lol.
We went up 30% without retracing that much, and in 2014 we went straight up more than 50%
But we're heading for some major resistances now, so good odds to finally get a pullback if we keep going up up up.

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Watch out for this...
These wedges have been working pretty fine till now I'd take it seriously at least be careful.

I don't feel like going long tbh, it's just dumb gambling.
All these pump chasers shitcoins chasers, they're all billionaires by now right? No? They're not? But how, shitcoins keep going up 100% and there's plenty of them with decent market caps, surely they can put enough money in these awesome trades to make millions and millions.

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Oh god I did the mistake to look at TV chat.
We dropped 2% after going straight up 10%, at the top of a bull move too with no pullback or barely, and people are already thinking it's all over and we crash.

This can't be real...
I must be missing something...They're all scalpers? They're not talking about small moves...

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Ok an update and we could get some short term targets.
Maybe I won't sit on a pile of sleeping money for 3 years...

If the falling wedge is to be taken seriously, we went to its target and even a bit beyond. More importantly, we went to 0.5 fibo exactly (after going to 0.382).
I don't know what I would do without fib. They work perfectly these levels.
These silly triangles have also been working near perfectly in crypto lol.
We are in a rising wedge and this one is touched almost perfectly on every point.
If the rising wedge breaks bearish I'll post a new idea with it's target (probably around 7200 if we break this week end).
There's no indication we can't go to 0.618 now, which is 9600 something.

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The small move down could have been seen before it happened, there was bearish div on the 1HR.
Now we had a few hours ago or minutes maybe bullish div on the 5 min and we are going up a bit.
Maybe day trade all of this?

For the longer term:

Watch out the daily red lines, are they going to tighten to buy, or tighten to sell?

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Still holding my short from 8500 I only risk what I'm willing to lose so idc and also expecting a drop at some point lol, can't keep going up with all these resistance above, can it?
A good short area would be 9500, if BTC goes past that 10300, if it goes even further wow (without 20% drop), would be the first time in BTC history and then I'd stay away because the thing stopped being predictable.

On the way up it has been stopping at every fibo, for day trading this can be useful.
I got a short order on Bitmex at 9400-9600.

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A rather pessimistic scenario for the bears if it's even worse than that wtf:

Optimistic is going to 7000 without going above 9100.

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Now trading within a 1% range.

Going to have to breakout soon, normally.
Day traders surely going to want to ride the wave in the direction it chooses.
Not going to expect too much thought. Could just continue sideways, market is really boring right now.
I feel like every market is just going to be boring like this for a while.

There has to be some arbitrage opportunity or market making something...
Sitting on their ass doing nothing is what Bitcoiners are looking for, I don't get it it's so unsatisfying can't stand it.

At least Forex never is boring lol.

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Be prepared for 9500 rofl.

Storm is coming soon everywhere, maybe people stop being euphoric then.

I close my long at 9300 and open a day trade short.
If this is the magical time where Bitcoin goes to 50k without ever retracing I'll lose 5 grans, whatever.
If that happens I reserve the right to call bad luck.

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Screw that lol. I don't want to lose 5 grans. It's dumb.
I'm taking a $1000 loss to close my lowest orders and have a higher entry (8400).
I'll use my long profit to short up 9500 if we go there.
MA100 is at 9300-9400 but these resistances don't seem to mean much these days.
Investors too optimistic to sell or something.

0.618 fibo is at 9680 somehting like that, but I'll short before we get there.
If we break below the rising wedge I better close my long.

I got to fine tune this lol. Don't want to miss moves but don't want to risk too much either.

And then maybe these euphoric people see some storms and get fearfull and all sell...It's like I'm playing agaisnt children, donkey children. Wtf is this...

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Something to improve on:
When you know we are in denial phase, be more careful with shorts (say risk 1% instead of the usual 2 for example, only wait for top entries otherwise miss out look at other opportunities).

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Looking back at this trade didn't expect the resistance to be broken on the first try BUT we tested the price level a first time before going above.
So maybe I overestimated the log downtrend?
I always thought and said on the more local chart linear matters more and log for yearly.
I changed my mind for this very line because I saw many people with good stats say it had an importance. Wrong. Or probably wrong.
Unless proven otherwise I'll keep thinking the linear trendlines are the important ones on smaller frames and log ones that date from a long time, can draw them when zooming out alot.

Should spend more time looking at candles and horizontal levels than all this other useless stuff. Ok not useless but secondary...

Maybe we go down and I won't get punished for this...

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Sorry for being the grim ripper lol.
Back again.
I am tired of comparing 2018 and 2014 ... but it keeps acting the same.
Anyway trading will be based off price levels and real TA, this is just for curiosity purpose and to build a little bias to help tip the odds in my favor.

Will either have to go up or go below the rising wedge:

Lately BTC goes down in a straight line and then goes up in a straight line wtf herd mentality?
Have to try catching top and bottoms or avoid trading it maybe?
For day trading it's still not going entirely in a straight line but I feel it would be better to cash out at 5% moves than wait for 15% that never come...

Very important: ETH shined again! I told you. But seriously, ETH is more bullish and LTC more bearish than BTC at the moment, so for longs it's best to go ETH and shorts best to go LTC, if possible. Going to last a while, then when LTC is the very oversold one and has been forgotten it will be its time.

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Still holding 25% of original position on that losing short trade lol.
If I executed it like a boss it would be a win.
Since I got a job I will not open swing trades anymore unless we're at the top or the bottom (basically if we went up 75% and daily RSI is at 75 I'd call that a top).

I'm focussing more on trading smaller moves that are less risky for me.

Oh if BTC goes to 11k I'm opening a big short thought!
(I will probably short ETH rather than BTC, went up more, if it's at 850$ I'd be very confident long way to go thought).

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When I clic on play it did go in the circle and it did go down.
I personally executed this trade very badly, each time I shorted on resistances I should have took profit and closed as we went back up and opened higher.
I find it hard to trade correctly while having a job full time + 2 hours commute.
I'm tweaking it, couple of months ago I was mad I didn't buy the dip at 9200 and 6000$ so I was a bit less careful but this time I lost money, got to find the right balance between not missing moves but not losing either and not risking too much.
I'm improving on my tactic to set orders in advance prepare for every scenario scale in. I AM going to make less profit than if I was full time focussed on trading, but I'll make the best of it.

I went long when BTC went past the trendline as pointed here:

Crypto spam box 4. The fall is going to be so brutal...

Only went up 15% for now. I sent that Bitcoin to Bitmex and shorted at 9500 before the brutal fall yesterday and closed that by now. I am keeping BTC on mex but not trading, can't tell where BTC goes immediately no point gambling.
If it goes 9500 I open a small short to hedge my btc, if it goes mugh higher I'll short it, otherwise I'll go long on the supports in the 7800-8400 region hope that goes well :D
Really risky to trade long now btw... Could fall like a rock...
So I'll be careful and not greedy.

I still have a short position on 8500$ it's 25% of original.

No guarentee it goes down, or up!

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Here was the right way to trade it no gambling:

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Especially after a big fall (from 11700) and still close to the bottom, it is very important to be careful and trade well.
If it goes up 100% overbought and everything, weather it will go up or down long term there's bound to be a 15-25% retrace in any case before going higher so it's less important to take profit soon etc.

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If I didn't execute this stupid trade like trash... I would have shorted 10 Bitcoins at 0.618 which is 9700$ which was the top...
OH MAN HAVE A JOB MAKES IT SO HARD.
I'd be rolling in dought by now...
Hope there's more opportunities in the next months sigh.
This is just so frustrating.

We have a textbook downtrend continuation chart here too (downtrend ==> correction up ==> bearish engulfing candle) & MtGox moved some BTC maybe they make it drop faster.

Every frustrating fail like this just brings us closer to being the perfect trading machine.