BTC (Y20.P5.E1).Price Action.Scenario

2020년 11월 14일

Hi All,

Looking at the chart we can have a fair range of possibilities, and based on a few indicators, I reduce the scenario's to 2.
Both bullish, for the time being

The reason I'm still bullish at this point is because of the trend so far, HH and LH of recent times along this EMA (ribbon) of 10/20.
The 16400 range was a likely to have a pullback because of the weekly resistance from 2017.
Also the indicators have shown a bearish divergence on a number of time frames (chart below) and hence we get this pullback.
Question was when will it happen, now, and how far will the divergence go, as its a daily one. Not an easy one to figure out for now.

B.Chart.




OBSERVATIONS:
==================
Referencing chart below > daily
> I have the LUCID SAR still bullish on the daily, dots showing upward pressure still there;
> We have the Phoeix in a bullish zone where the red and green RSI is above 70%, so not expecting a 20% pullback any time soon;
> 15620 to 15820 is critical level of support to keep momentum going otherwise we can experience a deeper pullback
If we close below this, it opens the door to experience something like back in August, which tried testing the weekly 21 EMA.
14500 range as the mains support area\target.
> If you look at the daily chart, you will note how the 10/20 daily ema played support.
Hence revisiting the 10 or 20 EMA on the daily is very normal.
> note we have 13 hours for the daily to close so the closing of this candle will give us a clue as to the price action momentum;
15940 is our macro resistance for now and if we get above this and hold it for a day, then my bullish above, blue line scenario will likely play out.




Referencing chart below > weekly
> Note confluence with the fib macro 0.786 level equating to the current high;
> The weekly trend looks parabolic so a pullback here won't be unusual, if anything healthy and hence a lesser pullback in the future;
> Indicators on the weekly show upward momentum still> Phoeix not crossed over however caution dot is there.
WT not crossed over signals which is higher than the previous cross over so no bearish div. on the weekly;
> MACD has confluence, convergent on the weekly;
So no imminent big or deep pullback yet, however Monday onwards will give us a clue;

Weekly chart, i.chart


CONCLUSION:
=============================
Do nothing and see what takes place in the next 8 hours.
If in the next day or 3 we have a ranging price in the second scenario, be sure that the ALTs will start hitting their stride, like back in August and ALT season will start again.
Currently the BTC dominance is holding its spot so don't rush, lets take 8 hours at a time.


Please give me a like or tick for this post

Regards,
S.SAri

2020년 11월 14일

노트

My levels of support and resistance in the current range.

2020년 11월 15일

노트

8 HRLY chart, trend still holding with the 10/20 EMA. However this candle is important and we have 5 hrs left for it to close.

2020년 11월 15일

노트

1 slightly bullish follow up candle, not convincing however you notice how this level is holding. It might be the case they dips into the grey area will continuously be bought up... and potentially get tired buying for a dip to 15350 to 15700 range, that's my thinking and then back up again.

2020년 11월 15일

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The short term bullish perspective. 2nd scenario is bearish, with a deeper pullback, below the yellow support line and requires another TA if and when it does that.

2020년 11월 16일

노트

Potential bull flag

2020년 11월 16일

노트

2020년 11월 16일

노트

Looking at this chart with fresh new eyes, I think we are very close to the top and the 16480 (binance) could end up being the highest before a pullback. A double top or near abouts. I hope I'm wrong but there are many reasons, here are some of the key points.
a) the current structure, compressing upward wedge, supported by the RSI or MACD formation.
b) the level it was rejected at, perfectly on the 1.618 fib extension.
c) the bearish divergence coming into play.

Have an exit plan, I have 2, 1 is the bottom trend line of the wedge and the other, not so easy.
Looking at the 4 day chart, I noted the phoeix past events, when the Red and Green rsi crossed over, AND the grey energy was near 50% or below 56%, we have down ward pressure appearing and soon after it drops. I looked at the 2 Day, 3 Day and 4 Day, all crossing over. 5th day to a week, it has not.
My thoughts, from this price now to to 17k lies the max before we have the reversal.

2020년 11월 16일

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Note how the SP500 did a similar move, W formation like BTC at a similar level.

2020년 11월 16일

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Its hit another fib level as well as the upper trend line which could be the wedge.
Here it can overperform, then dip or just dip. Macd looks good on the daily and the Phoeix still bullish

2020년 11월 17일

노트

Potential bull-flag again... or part of a bigger formation.