Horizontal Analysis

2018년 5월 14일

Medium term chart for me is all focused on horizontal levels; the flags I'll talk about secondary. The two main levels to point out: ~8.2k, and ~7.8k.

8.2k coincides closely with the 50% FIB retracement from ~6.4k to ~9.9k. In addition, it is the beginning zone of a high volume node (right of chart) that also coincides with a pretty good horizontal support level (orange line). In blue I've highlighted areas of interest for this horizontal support; it served as quite the resistance post BGD (other than a momentary bart above it).

7.8k coincides with a slightly smaller high volume node but has also been a pretty strong horizontal support/resistance line on the timeframe we're looking at. It, too, coincides approximately with the 61.8% FIB level.

These are the two major supports I've been watching in recent times and will continue to watch. FWIW, we seem to have topped out in the approximate zone of the 38.2% FIB level.

*IF* 7.8k breaks down, we'll possibly encounter some token support at 7.5k but more likely be headed to a retest of the lows.

So how do we get some inkling of whether or not 8.2/7.8 will hold? Well, who really knows. But this is where the flags come in. In yellow, you can see I've drawn two congruent flags. Depending on how lax you want to be, you could see them as already breaking down, but with heavy 8.2k support right there below it, in my opinion that's the level to really watch. The target for the smaller flag would be around 7.8k when adjusted for the heavy supports, providing more confluence. If you take that large flag as valid (it's not as well formed, but pretty apparent on longer term charts than 4 hours), then we're likely looking at testing the bear trend lows again.

The flags breaking up is harder to trade if you want a great entry. The current "top" is around 8.8k, but it'll continue going up. Entering here could be a great position if 8.2k does hold and the flags end up breaking upwards; however, that's looking risky. 8.6k could be a decent r/r entry place - if we do manage to get back up there it's likely for a retest of the top of the flag at least; you'll probably have an opportunity to exit at break even if 8.8k fails again or something.

Anyway, my current state for those who care: Been 80% fiat since a little over 9k, bought in significantly for a short time around 8.2-8.3k, but exited too quickly at the initial return to 8.35k as I got skittish and held that 80% fiat all the way through 8.7k and back down to where we are now. Planning on entering 30% between 8k-8.15k and another 30% between 7.8k-8k, with stops on those below 7.75k. If we don't get down to those levels I'll be fully bought back in by the time we get back above 8.65k.