If we are to keep the 4 year cycle intact, we need to start going sideways or up from a time stand point. If you look at previous BTC cycles the bear market continued 2/3 of the way from halving until the next halving. We are at this time band. There are a lot of signs that we are at the macro bottom. The interesting thing is that now everyone in crypto has become a macro analyzer looking at yield curves and stocks, when the idea of crypto is for you to get out of the traditional financial system. I think that we have a good probability that crypto doesn't go as low as people expect so the ones that keep waiting "for the bottom" will ultimately get left behind so they can fomo a lot higher. Currently that crypto Mcap is standing at 900B dollars. This is peanuts compared to other macro asset classes. This could hit 10T easily at the next cycle high.
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