Rangebound

업데이트됨

Decent risk/reward ratio on a speculative position betting on a revisit of the range highs. Indicators are divergent with price action and despite the low volatility last few weeks, the market is denying lower lows consistently and somewhat making a neutral-bullish trend. This would suggest a "buy the dip" situation, not a "sell at all costs" one; although we're in Stop-Hunting season and USDTether is dumping again so don't bet the farm on it. We may visit 6200 before 6700. The Elliot wave count I've suggested is not particularly bullish with wave 4 overlapping wave 1, but it's expectable on a range with no volatility and very low volume. Stop loss can be raised to 6190 if you'd trust your life to Elliot waves, because wave 4 shouldn't go below wave 2, but beware of getting chased.

Tether dumping isn't tragic as long as when it recovers the rest of the market follows Bitfinex valuations, which last time it did.

Sidenote: Haven't published in a long time, been busy reworking my framework and indicators, and learning to copy-paste Pine Script without breaking stuff. New set of indicators include a RSI+StochRSI combo both of which can be toggled on/off at will (I usually toggle off StochRSI); SMIIO Ergodic Indicator+Oscillator to get faster signals in price momentum than with MACD ; and the standard DMI with a treshold line at 25. I'm aware that I should include some sort of volume analysis indicator besides the momentum indicators I currently use, but I'd have to ditch the RSI and so far it's been trustworthy enough to keep it. Feel free to give advice.

노트

the 1H chart seems to agree with the divergences (although they aren't fully accurate because of the lookback period of the indicators). The -DMI red line is trending down, suggesting bears could be taking profits; and subsequently the ADX line is making lower highs, suggesting trend exhaustion (to the downside)

노트

hahahaha, this didn't age well. Luckily a breakdown of the 4th wave means an invalidation of the speculative position. The entire market went bonkers with that breakdown, crazy to see how wild it was in perspective.

Anyway, back to analysis in case anyone reviews this: the mistake here was ignoring the daily chart divergence, and trying to speculate to the upside in an obviously non volatile market which hadn't broke a resistance in months. Extremely risky, that could only work for intraday hourly positions which wouldn't yield significant gains without high leverage so best thing was to stay away until volatility showed up again.