Bitcoin Nothing Left

업데이트됨

There is no bullish momentum or strength, earlier I was expecting a bounce, but so far we have been dropping indiscriminately, each time is just a small pause to another movement to the downside. The strongest support in a while has been broken, it held strong but it was broken in a matter of an hour, so it is far to say that the entire cryptomarket and bitcoin itself should be capitulating soon. Each time the RSI resets and moves back down again, it reaches the same point so there are no failure swing and the bears are in control. Around the entire mid 6000's should be a support strong enough to temporarily halt the movement downwards, and if we are lucky we might see a bounce here to something like 6700 or 6850 but I give that like a maybe 25% chance given our movements so far. There might be a bounce around 5800, but once that breaks the next support would be 4800 and I expect that to be the strongest support and the support that we bounce, if that fails though there is a high chance we hit the low 4000 to the high 3000 range.

Key Points:

1.) Since the 6850 broke, 5800 is the last support and then I expect a movement down to the low 5000's to 4800's range a small bounce might occur back into the 6700-6850 range, but that is unlikely than just holding this position.
2.) If 5800 is broken, I think there will be a high probability of a high volume V shape bottom at either 4800 or 3800 because the masses are not aware of support structures and things of that nature and there will be a lot of panic. Always a lot of panic. But do not panic! identifying a strong bottom will be a swing trade of a lifetime.

노트

Right now it looks like a pennant which has a 50% chance of hitting its price objective of 5800. I do no expect this pennant to go the full distance of its pole, however, there is a possibility that the triangle of the pennant moves either upwards or downwards (Most probable direction). I am expecting a solid support around 5900-6000 and from there, there could be a bounce, but I do not know how strong that bounce will be. There is also a good chance we roll over and if that is the case, expect to see 4800 soon. The next few days to weeks will be very important. I have been losing sleep in this market at the moment.

노트

Right now, the 6400 price range is providing support, however, it looks like it is ready to make another move down.

노트

So far, bitcoin has moved the price of the triangle and this would be another point to pause. In addition, the green lines were the bottom and top of the right and left shoulder, roughly estimated becauase they are slightly different on both shoulders.

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노트

Possible Head and shoulder topping continuation pattern.

노트

In the longer time frame, it looks like there could be a short squeeze up and I would give this triangle a 55-65% chance of breaking to the downside while I would say there is a 35-45% chance that it breaks to the upside.