Gann Box Tells All for Bitcoin's Future!
업데이트됨
Looking at the Gann Box, we can see that Bitcoin got caught in the midline's back in December and has been downtrending within them since. Based on past performance I have laid out it's likely future movements. We should get a bounce back into the 5k's some time this month, followed by relative inaction before a real capitulation bottom (anywhere between 1-3k) and several months of inactive accumulation. For all of you looking for a bull run, it won't be any time soon (I'd look for a monthly bullish MACD cross for actual confirmation of a sustained run above ATH).
Some of you may have noticed that my time scale is actually slower than 2013, and are writing angry comments that "the entire industry is different now! People know about crypto now! Institutions! Reversal and accumulation will be faster this time!" First of all, so far we have taken longer to get to the same point relative to 2013, so it's likely to stay that way. As for why, it comes down to differences in market cap. The crash of 2013 wiped BTC's market cap from $12 Billion to $3 Billion. Our run up was an influx of another 320B and we now sit at 60B. To see the same percentage gain from a bottom of 2k, we need to see an influx of $3.5 TRILLION. The scale is a lot bigger now and therefore things are going to take a bit longer.
However, there's no need to despair about potentially reaching $2000. Your long term plan should be as follows:
1) Lock up your funds and forget about Bitcoin and crypto for now unless you are ACTUALLY making money trading (don't lie to yourself. If you can't say that you have more USD value now than 1, 3, 6, or 12 months ago stop losing your money. Sit tight and wait for better opportunities).
2) When BTC goes inactive at relatively reasonable levels (3-4k for months), this is when you ACCUMULATE. Buy crypto with aims of 10-50x returns. This still is not a trading zone, only accumulation.
3) Once the monthly MACD crosses and BTC starts to uptrend, this is when you start trading to increase your bag of BTC. Trading relies on volume and volatility, both of which have been terrible lately. However, during a bull run trading conditions should be MUCH better, giving you better odds of actually making money.
4) Continue trading through 2-3 years of bullishness, increase your stack of BTC, and enjoy the value of that BTC flying back up!
2017 was a big run and most of us are here trying to get the returns that we could've had we only been here earlier. I'm guilty of it myself. HOWEVER, this is not an excuse to let your money be taken by the big players running this market right now. Patience is the key to trading, and although you may not like it, this market requires long term patience right now. Don't worry if you miss the bottom because things won't just take off. There will be plenty of time between the bear market and bull market. Keep your money safe now and grow it then! Good Luck!
Some of you may have noticed that my time scale is actually slower than 2013, and are writing angry comments that "the entire industry is different now! People know about crypto now! Institutions! Reversal and accumulation will be faster this time!" First of all, so far we have taken longer to get to the same point relative to 2013, so it's likely to stay that way. As for why, it comes down to differences in market cap. The crash of 2013 wiped BTC's market cap from $12 Billion to $3 Billion. Our run up was an influx of another 320B and we now sit at 60B. To see the same percentage gain from a bottom of 2k, we need to see an influx of $3.5 TRILLION. The scale is a lot bigger now and therefore things are going to take a bit longer.
However, there's no need to despair about potentially reaching $2000. Your long term plan should be as follows:
1) Lock up your funds and forget about Bitcoin and crypto for now unless you are ACTUALLY making money trading (don't lie to yourself. If you can't say that you have more USD value now than 1, 3, 6, or 12 months ago stop losing your money. Sit tight and wait for better opportunities).
2) When BTC goes inactive at relatively reasonable levels (3-4k for months), this is when you ACCUMULATE. Buy crypto with aims of 10-50x returns. This still is not a trading zone, only accumulation.
3) Once the monthly MACD crosses and BTC starts to uptrend, this is when you start trading to increase your bag of BTC. Trading relies on volume and volatility, both of which have been terrible lately. However, during a bull run trading conditions should be MUCH better, giving you better odds of actually making money.
4) Continue trading through 2-3 years of bullishness, increase your stack of BTC, and enjoy the value of that BTC flying back up!
2017 was a big run and most of us are here trying to get the returns that we could've had we only been here earlier. I'm guilty of it myself. HOWEVER, this is not an excuse to let your money be taken by the big players running this market right now. Patience is the key to trading, and although you may not like it, this market requires long term patience right now. Don't worry if you miss the bottom because things won't just take off. There will be plenty of time between the bear market and bull market. Keep your money safe now and grow it then! Good Luck!
노트
This chart lays out the reasons why past movements happened and speculates on why future moves will happen.
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