Long Bitcoin to 14k - mid term trade idea 2-3 months outlook

2020년 2월 1일

Quick note: I've been long on BTC from $6600 and have a trailing stop at around $7200 so that if the market turns against my idea i can still get out with a 10% profit. If you enter long at a later stage remember to consider your own risk/reward ratio carefully to your own circumstance/timing when opening a long.

Trade: I've been analyzing the 2016 correction and looking for similarities, fib levels, pivot points and as of now this has lead me to the conclusion you see in my chart.

Take profit: target is 14k range where i think we will double top at the end of wave 5 and see a 10%-30% ABC correction.

problems:

a) i will be watching my predicted wave 3 end like a hawk just in case my wave 3 end is actually wave 5 end

b) EW analysis is subjective and not science..... this means 80-90% of my analysis is based on other indicators, fibs, harmonics, patterns, very little as in only 10-20% weight is given for EW. EW should be used as an after thought to see if it matches up with your other analysis.
Theres the possibility we are still just in wave 1, if this becomes evident then i'll likely increase my take profit zone to $16,000.

2020년 2월 4일

노트

Forgot to explain the vertical lines in the chart

Red vertical line = expected date price will top out

Black vertical line = is halving date

2020년 2월 6일

노트

a few people have mentioned in the chat why im sure we will hit 14k, the simple answer is, im NOT.

Important:if we get close to the halving date and we're only sat at 11-12k i will most likely close my long. Holding a position close the halving date is very risky and unpredictable

2020년 2월 8일

노트

around the timeline where see you end of wave 4, this is where im expecting BTC to start dramatically outperform BTC

2020년 4월 7일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Coronafied! Black swan events like this will destroy even the most perfect trade set ups like we get during the bitcoin halving events.