Did Bitcoin Bull run end with this recent Top at 69000 ?

2021년 12월 17일

I would like to entertain the idea from a technical perspective that Bitcoin already ended its Bull run at Recent top on 10 November 2021 at 68958. And now we are in a Bear Market that could last at least 2 years and even longer. I will use classical technical indicators and Elliot Wave Theory to provide evidence.



First of all i would like to talk about chart scales.

Arithmetic or Logarithmic Scale ?

Usually charts are always set on Arithmetic Scale by default. But sometimes we may require Log scale when looking at a larger time frame lasting years or decades to look at previous bull and bear markets of an asset. Look at this Screenshot below-




As you can see Arithmetic chart which is focused on most recent data looks very different from the log scale. Now if you really want to see the long history of BTC price action you have to switch to log scale because its easier to identify pullbacks. I have seen lots of traders drawing fibb extensions on log scale and giving 250k - 500k targets for this bull run because on log scale it looks pretty reasonable but actually is not relevant. Simply as you cannot expect a Baby to grow on fetus growth rate. So this recent bull run was a very impressive 65000 motive wave which looks very small on a log scale.

Elliott Wave Count

Cyclic wave Completed. Check the pic below for labeling -



Check pic below for Cyclic wave price and time lengths-



Now focus on Most recent price action:-



Upto primary wave 123 most of the Ellioticians are using this count. The only confusing part is primary 4. Some are calling that we are still in primary 4 as a running flat or expanded if we go down more. But i can argue that primary 4 was over in june. Why ?

As you see above in the chart Green Channel (13 or Acceleration). Wave 4 broke out of that channel which confirms that it belongs to the same structure. I can comfortably call it primary 4. Usually wave 4 are less than 55% correction mostly being triangles. But this was nearly 60% retracement suggesting BTC was running out of steam. In such scenarios i have seen most of the time wave 5 usually just make little bit above top of wave 3 avoiding truncation.


This is way before the dump when i was very confident that things are about to take turn. Pic below

Thanks for reading.

2021년 12월 17일

노트

did not load that pic. its a pinned tweet on my twitter anyways

2021년 12월 17일

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2021년 12월 21일

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2022년 1월 8일

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So wave B did not retrace .50 but spot on at .38 of A which is ideal for a zigzag. Now C in the progress.