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Bitcoin possible turning routes based on main trend

업데이트됨

Now we can identify an almost classic 3-3-5 correction here, which is a continuation pattern. The market (surprisingly) willing to obey Elliot's law and falling.
There could be 3 turning points ahead:

1) The 1st (and most probable) one is almost reached. Here we can see a strong resistance and the .236 of the current bearish swing. The bold green line shows the 50 days MA, which seems to be very strong support (it's very seldom breached for extended time). Moreover, the double orange line bellow is the standard trend range before the bull-rush in December. Again, it's a good opportunity for price reversal. If the price bounces here it's a range bound market, which probably will reach for the upper trendline (highest orange line), our target should be the resistance at 17200 (no need to max out everything :). Stop loss should be set around 12200.

2) If this level is broken, next support at 11000. It's the .618 of the last large bullish swing and double bottom. It can be a good long term opportunity. Tight stop-loss at 10600 might be reasonable because...

3) we have a low probability scenario of reaching 9000, which is a natural EW continuation of the current ABC correction wave. Very good long term opportunity (and very improbable one :) cautious buyers should wait for some confirmation since if this level breached, major pullback might unfold and BTC probably will loose it's throne.

Happy trading!

노트

In case of scenario (1) more cautious target around 16400 might be desirable, considering the first resistance and the falling triangle pattern.

노트

First target reached. Divergence appeared on RSI (yellow) while ADX (pink) says the trend getting momentum. Consolidation is probable, reversal is possible but there are no strong confirmations. If you were shorting BTC it's a good opportunity to cash out part of the profit. Buying is ok if you are a good risk taker, but use tight stop-loss. The market is very nervous (check the sudden drops in price) any little bad news can crush the market in no time.

DMI says trend is slower now, but failed to reverse (you can see the struggle at the red arrow) ADX line is slightly increasing again. We are dancing at the edge of the trendline, I would expect a little bit of struggle here before deciding the direction. Do not expect a sharp retrace to 20k. In case of reversal, the next possible target would be 15.7k (or 15k resistance if it happens later) then retest the trendline.

노트

After failing to breach 14500, Target 2 reached, just as predicted. This resistance is strong, consolidation is probable, but considering the wave-count and momentum one more wave (reaching target 3.) is very well possible.

노트

Resistance pretty much breached. Probably we go for target 3 after short retrace.

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Watch for possible retest at 9000.