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BTCUSD: Buckle up, bear market started.

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I think it's possible might have ended it's 2 year bull market, and now entering a correction/consolidation phase. I'd expect some altcoins to fare well, so I will try to outperform strategically shorting when needed, and holding exposure to select altcoins in my portfolio. I have reduced my crypto account size to be a mere 25% of my net worth in December 14, anticipating this outcome.
For now, entering shorts can be done on retrace, if it happens tomorrow, but, it is risky, since calling the top in this type of enviroment is always hard. I'd rather focus on reducing exposure and holding altcoins with the rest, and using shorts sporadically with low risk per trade (1% max, tight stops).
As a sidenote, it seems like the main mineable coins are not going to fare well, , , maybe, , , all look frail in their dollar charts, with and looking much better, or even , , and a few more.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

PS: Sell Ripple, it's a scam. The top target zone I had outlined was 2.4-2.8, and it was already hit. Not worth holding on to it.

노트

chart implies we can get a 65% crash, interestingly this is what I had anticipated by copying the 2013 top pattern and subsequent consolidation, but adjusting it to today's volatility

Contuining to guess, we could see a rally to $75000 per BTC.

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About :

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In the short term, BTC is moving too fast up, the inside bar today is not too good for a bear case, but I'm still not comfortable owning BTC. If we don't go straight down, I severely doubt we go any higher either, maybe just sideways.

Either way, the short trade had a stop loss that can be hit, and if so, would take us out for a 1% loss. -Not a huge deal-

Meanwhile the coins we hold off exchange have grown both in BTC and in USD value, so it's a win win for now. With some luck BTC doesn't outperform the portfolio.

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Daily uptrend signal forming in

After this pans out, we could either go sideways for months, or break the ATH, culminating in a top by May/June. Chances are we saw the long term bottom in already, from the last peak at least.

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I'm reducing my crypto account size to 25% of net worth, is failing to meet a target here, which is a negative signal. Fund equities account with 75% of your funds and hold spot BTC, as an insurance for exposure to traditional finance