Bitcoin Headed Towards Greatness or Disaster? Part 2

2019년 7월 17일

Previous analysis where i showed that H&S reached it's target very fast. Even after making that ABC upwards i showed before this last drop yesterday. There have been several attempts since yesterday to make a low and bounce up, but market was just so weak it could not even make a decent correction upwards. Small attempts that simply failed so far. I mentioned that giving a target was a bit difficult and that's why i gave a zone (yellow circle). Usually, when the trend is still bullish, targets like these can be turning points. But i don't dare to say that at this point. I explained my worries in the previous analysis and even though we are still in long term bullish territory, i am NOT simply going to assume that we are in a long term bear market again. Dumps alts have made past week are very worrying to me, increasing the chances for a bear market, but it can still turn of course since the whole market simply follows Bitcoin.

Now it's moving quickly, was just about to write this update. But doesn't matter much because i think for catching the low it's still very risky here. 9400ish was a first step, which broke pretty fast already. But still in the danger zone here.
The level to break now is around 9600ish. If that one breaks, chances for a bigger correction will increase. How it goes i can't say. But safest play is seeing a good volume break up and then getting a nice correction to test the new support level to create another ABC or maybe even a new wave up. We had several ABC's now, so could be the moment we see a bigger correction/move up. Trend is still down IMO, but on daily chart bullish is still possible. The drops past weeks were quite hard, so we do NOT want to see a rally like we had 2 weeks ago from the 9700/13.200. Back then i also kept saying we need to retest the low once more. Now we can see WHY it never happened. It was simply forced upwards to squeeze out shorts to be able to short at high prices. You might remember me saying, one short squeeze after the other. This is what the big boys do when they get the chance to play around with retail money.

There is also still a chance that the channel you can see on the left is real as well. That's why a break of 9600ish is important for the bulls on the low time frame. The blue line on the left, is what bulls need to see. Doesn't necessarily show what i expect to see.

For the bigger picture, the double top i showed in the previous analysis is in full play now. So it's very important that the bulls break the 10300/500 zone coming days. Because if they fail to break this within a week (difficult to give a period on this, but would prefer max 2/4 days), things can get much more ugly coming weeks. Because the double top can bring price back to 6k prices. Now for this to play out, it's not likely normally. But this is Bitcoin i rarely get surprised by any extremes anymore. I think a key level is around 11k, if this level breaks, i think the sentiment will be at least neutral again. So giving both sides a decent chance. I have also drawn a bull flag on the right, where we can see it dropped below it. So lets say the bullish push it back in with conviction and volume, it could be a sign of a small bear trap. So the faster it gets back in the more bullish it will be. Now the key factor with this is, doesn't have to simply continue to go up in a straight line. Getting back in it (not just a small wick) and then retesting the lows once more is also still good. So something like the blue line is showing. Red line is if the double top is in full play.

So for now, i think patience is the best play here. Seeing bulls pushing back again, so at least 1 good strong volume bullish candle, before we can think the bearish pressure is over already and bulls are back in control again. So in general, my view is still bearish, but i know there is enough room for change if things play out as i described above.



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Previous analysis:

2019년 7월 17일

노트

Showing bit more strength now that i expected. Still no rejection at this point. The candle in the middle, blue circle is a good bullish candle, what bulls needed to see (break of that 9600ish zone). So that step has been set, but now almost starting to look like it doesn't want to make a small correction here.
Also see alts are doing quite well today, which also shows some potential as well, for the sentiment. Of course normal to see them move up after such a huge dump, but today's move is quite strong compared to past days from the small list i am looking at. So gives potential for another wave up later today or tomorrow.

2019년 7월 17일

노트

It keeps sloping upwards, at the start it looked quite convincing but since it doesn't feel like a real fight between bulls and bears. So not really sure what to make of it at this point. That candle i showed before closed and looks really good, also good volume. But instead of seeing a move down and see the bulls step up a bit again, seeing this slow movement up. So to me this doesn't feel like THE start of a new bull wave. So this doesn't say anything of how far it can go up. See it as 2 weeks ago, where it didn't feel right it simply moved up in a straight from the 9700 low. It went to 13200 even, doing one short squeeze after the other. Now it's too early to say anything since it's only a small move. But we need to see bears fail instead of seeing them being a sleep, if this moves want to have some foundation. Volume has been dropping past 2 hours and already made a small drop (but low volume). Now we have a level around 9650/700, if that breaks we could see a retest of the 9400/50.

So i can't really say what the low time frame will do, but as long as we stay above the 9400 an ABC upwards is still the most likely play here.

2019년 7월 17일

노트

This describes a bit why this move up feels a bit off, but still can't decide if it's noise or not. Volume few weeks ago was a bit higher but more importantly, we never had that yellow zone retest. At the moment we can see which stage we are in compared to 2 weeks ago. Where it simply moved up without even a good retest on higher time frame. So based on this, think if the 9600/50 breaks, most likely see a test of 9400/50. But at the moment, don't feel confident if that 9400ish will hold. Also because we are seeing resistance below that red zone, previous low from few days ago. The bullish candle i showed in the previous update is still in play and usually that one is more reliable and ignores noise.

So i think as long as we stay above the 9600/50, we can look up. If we break the 10K, probably see price increase even more. Just a break of 9600ish, where i mentioned earlier that i still think another push up is likely, just not that confident about that at the moment.

2019년 7월 18일

노트

So far still below that 10K. We had a second touch, which so far is not enough. Because of this we have formed what looks like a triangle. So now it becomes a bit easier to judge what might come next. If we see a third touch of the high, than it will become very likely to see it break up and probably a strong fast rally. Think anything slow, would prob mean a small bull trap. Saying this, because this level is important now and therefore need to see a reaction happen.
So seeing the blue line play out is the ideal version. So another touch of it, another rejection but smaller (which means bears are loosing strength), higher low and then attack the resistance and break it.

Now obviously, if bulls don't manage to touch the 10k anymore, we will drop again. Think towards the 9200/9400 to maybe form a higher low or simply continue the bear trend because we still have that big double top in play.

9700ish is what seems to be the level that the bulls need to hold.

2019년 7월 18일

노트

New ETH analysis:

2019년 7월 18일

노트

Quite volume on this drop, so not looking good for the bulls. But there is still a chance for that higher low to make an ABC. But the 9300/9400 needs to hold then. A break of that zone makes it much more likely to see it continue to drop withing that channel and make new lows again. Because the rejection at 10K is very bad if we also break the low we had.

When looking at the alts, they are surprisingly strong compared to Bitcoin. Not seeing any dumps on that side. But think if BTC doesn't bounce up here, they might still follow.