5800$ is still possible but don't think the bear market is over.

2019년 4월 10일

I do believe in Bitcoin but I still think it is a risk-on asset that will be heavily dumped at the beginning of the coming stock market crash.
During a market crash, investors usually put their money on risk-off assets such as bonds and/or the ones that brings a cash flow (i.e. with dividends).
I expect at least a retest of the $3200k but falling to 2400$ or even 1150$ is not impossible for me.
Next bull run will only come after that and I expect it to be massive if it happens.

2019년 4월 11일

노트

Unless BTC breaks below 4240$ I still expect a last pump before a major dump.

2019년 4월 11일

노트

Here are two graphs describing a possible evolution of the price of Bitcoin with a big dump without an initiating pump. On the second graph you can see that the wave 4 retraces too much and overlap with the wave 1. That invalidates the scenario of a big dump without a first retest a bit above 5475$. My short position is however still open with a tight stop loss in case the initiating pump does not happen.

1st graph


2nd graph

2019년 4월 11일

노트

2019년 4월 11일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Short closed.
Long opened.
Short will be opened again at +/- 5800$

2019년 4월 12일

노트

My current expectations. To be updated at each wave.

2019년 4월 13일

노트

We are probably still in a corrective wave that is a flat ABC as shown below. In a defensive measure I am closing my long position at +/-5190$ and probably will open a short position. This short will be placed with the only purpose to not lose the train in case Bitcoin starts its major fall to 3k$ and below.

2019년 4월 13일

매매 수동청산

Position closed. I am waiting for a better opportunity.

Here is another possible development:

2019년 4월 14일

노트

My expectations right now:

2019년 4월 16일

노트