BTC Correction or Bear Market

2017년 7월 11일

Taking December 20th (2016) as the 2017 rally starting point, up until March 10th a 1360 all time high, Bitcoin experienced a 70.36% growth in a matter of three months. Once the price peaked, it withstanded a correction that lasted 36 days (from the March 10th high to the April 15th low), a 34.69% decrease from high to low. Post-correction what was perceived as a trend reversal took off to be a monster rally, with a staggering 235.83% price jump in 58 days (April 15th low to June 12th high). Using the 34.69% drop in March as the base scenario, if we are indeed in a correction and not a bearish trend, a correction of a similar scale will see prices fall to a 1875-2140 range. Taking the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci Support levels as reference levels. Furthermore, with the ADX signaling trend strength at 25 and the Stochastic RSI capable of falling even further into the oversold zone bellow 20, the technical indicators are confirming that the correction has still more room to continue falling.

So the question remains: Bear Market or Correction?