On Edge

업데이트됨

I was just now telling somebody on TV how I still do not feel comfortable with posting this but will humbly anyway. Please humour me again. This person made the PS section below make so much sense.
What is this whole edge fascination in trading all about? What is an edge anyway – trading the breakout of a pattern, the retest of a pattern, a moving average crossover, a volume spike, etc? Money Man humbly defines an edge as a rule providing favourable odds over a time. Not a definite, but an advantage in probability that can be capitalized on via a strategy that balances the opportunity with the risks involved. Maybe too eloquent, but you will already have this in mind.
If this is the case, many things could be an edge and there sure has been a deep dive search especially via indicators and math. So, it becomes important to distinguish between just an edge and a good edge. Looking for this would bring up the adage that a good edge is one you can explain to somebody in the time it takes for you to use an elevator. Agustin Lebron goes further and says as a rule “The long-term profitability of an edge is inversely proportional to how long it takes to explain it”. Thus, the more complex your edge, the more fragile (for great author on antifragility search Nassim Taleb).
This then makes it clear that your edge have a lifetime and the more simplistic your edge, the longer it will last, but also a good edge will fade away and not simply die in flames on some unexpected sunny day. The exception being when something fundamentally changes in relation to your trading vehicle of choice (see Hive Mind v Irrational Markets linked below).
What to do if you do not have an edge? Keep learning and looking. The more time you spend bumping around in trading, immune to noise, the more likely it is that you will bump into one and recognise it. Again, trade so that you last. You decide how much you will pay for your education. Money Man leaves more on this in a PS below. Also be very careful of people saying they will share their edge openly (especially for money) as of the reasoning above and below.
How will you know when you have an edge? You most probably would have had a long enough journey to recognise it for what it is and if not, if would simply disappear or you will not utilize it correctly and let it survive.
What to do if you found one? You do not own it but are its custodian. Share it at your own peril, and that of who you share it with, as it will erode at an accelerated pace as though it was not there in the first instance and you will look like a charlatan.
How can you spot somebody who has got one? Firstly, they would not let it on because of the reasoning above. Secondly, it stands to reason that their actions would whisper consistency and confident calm.
Does Money Man have an edge? What he is attempting to do is to empower others to find their own edges. How? Through providing an, as consistent lens (a polaroid if you will) as possible to filter out some noise and polarization. It will not work for everybody, but he is trying.

Conclusion: Think about who you are, where you are heading and how you will get there without major cost. Very important to me: Please leave a like if you appreciate to effort, please leave a comment to develop this further and Please follow if you think that this idea thread is leading to somewhere that you would like to know about.

PS: A small philosophical but real detour on ownership. You actually ‘own’ very little. I.e. you might call yourself a “homeowner”, but neglect to pay back the bond and interest and you will see that you are not. Okay, you are the “outright owner”, but neglect to pay the property taxes and see who the real owner is. That is probably why the saying goes: “Possession is nine-tenths of the law”, with no mention of ownership. All that needs to happen is that you should not be there. Soon you find yourself arguing to a place where you will argue that you “own yourself”. Lets stall that train of thought there as it is starting to get to a ‘crossing the Rubicon argument’ (not the intention). But if we are there, then it makes sense for you to prioritize investing in yourself as the lowest risk to reward deal out there. Think of the man that was offered everything and he picked wisdom. His wisdom then provided him with everything. Then you should logically search out opportunities to invest in yourself while having empathy with others who are doing the same (travel in a group) and be vigilant as a journey of discovery always carry risk / being vulnerable. Look no further than trading to find a real-life classroom.

노트

Previous ed post