Bitcoin Reality 2

2017년 5월 24일

I believe Bitcoin is between 20% and 40% into the 2017 bull run.

I refer readers to my first idea on the subject, Bitcoin Reality -

It is important to note the following:

1. Always use a logarithmic chart for Bitcoin. If there is any phenomenon that should be charted log instead of linear, it is Bitcoin!

2. Compare the long term log chart movements from Bitcoin's history with today. Bitcoin has a unique supply / demand dynamic. Read more in the original Bitcoin Reality post. My preference is for comparing the first part of the 2013 run-up with today, as we are in a similar moment fundamentally (see original post for more details).

3. Do not over-think on short time scales. I listed a few examples of rational and reasonable trades that have failed over the past few weeks in Bitcoin Reality. There were many more and there are a lot more to come. Look for yourself. In 2013 there was a bear trap of 50% in the second part of the run-up, when Bitcoin dropped from around $700 to $350 and came back again within a week before blowing past $1000. We have seen nothing of that scale yet, but it will likely happen at least once (with several more mid-size examples) before the definitive 2017 all time high is set.

Good luck everyone.

2017년 6월 6일

매매 수동청산

Although Bitcoin may well carry on further, my personal investment has done enough to warrant a close.