Bitcoin Bounce Back To 65K ?

2021년 11월 21일

Bitcoin cleared the 62K level that I mentioned in my previous analysis and has tested prices as low as the 55K area which was in line with my 57K support area forecast (small blue box). There is a bullish retrace attempt in progress which is still in line with the broader bullish structure, but is now the best time to go long for a swing trade?

The green candles coming off of 55K can be characterized as the initial move off of a support level. Levels are NOT precise, and are better considered as price areas or zones, rather than a specific price. 57K was the general area which I interpreted as a high probability location for a bullish reversal. The initial move at the moment may be the beginning of that reversal which can lead to a test of the mid to low 60Ks over the coming week.

Since the 62K level was a significant event (weekly sell signal), the more conservative thing to do in this situation is WAIT for the second leg of the reversal to prove itself. In this case, it would look like a mini double bottom off the 55 to 57K area, or a higher low formation. A price location alone provides a point of reference, but price action itself must qualify in order for me to justify the risk.

The reward/risk from current levels is attractive because typical risk is about 4K points, and a move to the low to mid 60s is within reason.

What IF the current price action unfolds into a lower high instead? This scenario would mean 55K is tested again and broken. If Bitcoin chooses this scenario, I would anticipate a test of the low 50Ks and do nothing until some form of price stability appeared.

Know your levels, plan ahead, and know exactly what type of trade you are taking before you assume the risk. If you are not making decisions in a structured way, your results will be random. And when this sector goes out of favor, without any thought process or analytical routine, you will get caught in a position that will rob you of any temporary profits.

As retail traders and investors we have NO advantage compared to insiders or smart money. The herd is a source of profit for many players in this space. For this reason, we have to realize where we fit in and do everything to protect our capital which requires a defensive mindset. The herd fails not because it is incompetent, but because it is driven by greed and fear which is rooted in a profit focused mindset. I remind my followers often: RISK FIRST.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.