Possible continuation of Wave 4

2019년 5월 3일

Hi peeps,

Update of price action today. I expected a head and shoulders pattern but instead it seems an ascending broadening wedge is forming with higher tops and higher lows. This is in fact bullish. I start to change my mind about short term and being neutral at this moment. My view in medium and long term however is still bearish! Since bitcoin is close at huge resistance I do expect multiple tests of this zone despite overload of bearish signals. Greed index is at 61% so still more room up. Much more shorts then longs, this can cause a short squize. Renewed optimism and irrational greed can fuel this up.

I drew on the chart a diagonal resistance line like in February 2019. A possible short term bullish scenario is that bitcoin test 5750 - 6000 (soon), most probably this test will be rejected. Bitcoin goes to the now diagonal support, stays there for a while and go up for a second time and succeeds. Where the top will be in this case is very hard to predict. Three possiblities: 6500 - 6800 previous tops / 7800 the 61% retrace. I am going to watch for a pullback to 5200 - 5400 at the diagonal support level and see if it holds. If it holds I will go long for short term.

Bearish scenario. Bitcoin tests the 5750 - 6000 only once. Diagonal resistance doesn t hold and Bitcoin is going straight down.

But don t make a mistake! This is not the start of a sustained bull market!!!! This is not more then a correctional wave to the upside. A very big correction after this one will come. Mark my words.

Have a good weekend