BTCUSD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Fracta - Deadcat to $9.4K?

업데이트됨

Bitcoin is starting to form the previous inverse head & shoulders pattern on a smaller scale, potentially creating the continuation pattern of a bear trap followed by dead cat bounce to $9,400 support turned resistance, before moving back below 9K for lower lows after the monthly (as well as quarterly and bi-annual candle) closes. Based on larger time-frames, $8.8-8.95K should act as strong volume support.

RSI & CMF are diverging with the similar setup. RSI oversold double bottom currently testing neutral zone within right shoulder, CMF bearish selling pressure divergence from left shoulder to head flips to buying pressure and re-tests the neutral zone in the right shoulder. Below $8,637 (50 Week MA), price could fall fast if bears follow through with sufficient volume.

It's the perfect setup for a bear trap, followed by the obvious bull trap into strong resistance.

Candle closing metrics based on current price:
Monthly gain/loss: -4.28% (bearish)
Quarterly gain/loss: +40.95% (bullish)
Bi-annual gain/loss: +23.23% (bullish)

4hr view continued: A few possible scenarios

Daily view: Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation

BTCUSD: Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation

Weekly view: Logarithmic Curve & Network Growth : 100K in 2021?

BTCUSD: Logirthmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?

노트

Bearish price actions lacks confluence with bullish hash rate imo, hence no buy signal given yet. Could take some time to get it, but more likely to signal than not eventually. On the Daily time-frame at least, this signals has always confirmed after hash rate recovery usually within a few days days. The exceptions to the rule was after the second halving in 2016, which was delayed by around 10 days, as well as 2015, that took 4 weeks to confirm.

Most notable all 11 buy signals (blue) have appeared within a month of recovery in hash rate (green), followed by making new hash rate ATH within a short number of days. It's hard not to see the obvious nature of the similarities between these halvings, price aside. To me it therefore seems any dips will be well-defended as the next bullish cycle for Bitcoin will be ready.

[center]2012 - First Halving