BTCUSD: A fragile rebound, with risk of returning to the 84,000

4일 전

After a fairly “tiring” week, Bitcoin has ticked up slightly at the start of the week, but the overall picture still leans clearly toward the bears. Outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now extended into the fourth consecutive week, showing that institutional money is still cutting exposure. At the same time, the market is both hoping for a Fed rate cut in December (around 70% probability) and worrying because many Fed officials remain cautious. With no new bullish catalyst, the crypto market in general – and BTC in particular – remains under short-term downside pressure.

On the D1 timeframe, BTCUSD is holding a clear downtrend below the Ichimoku cloud. A descending trendline drawn from the previous highs continues to cap every rebound. Price is currently trading around 87,000 USD, after dropping to a recent low near 83,500 USD and then bouncing slightly. The scenario illustrated on the chart suggests BTC may range and consolidate before pushing up to retest the 96,700 USD area – a key confluence resistance where the descending trendline meets a horizontal supply zone.

If BTC reaches the 96,700 USD region but faces strong selling, the primary scenario is a new leg down back toward the 84,000 USD support zone. With ETF flows still negative and the Fed’s outlook still uncertain, every bounce into higher resistance levels currently looks more like a distribution opportunity than the start of a sustainable uptrend.

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