BITCOIN Can it reach at least 150k?

8월 14일

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last month (July) in green and even though August started on a very strong decline, the market has managed to recover most of its losses before the middle of the month.

This shows incredible buying force right on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021 All Time High (ATH). Today's study is centered around the 1M time-frame and the Bullish Crosses of the MACD. In the past 10 years, we have had this formation only 5 times, all of which during Bull Cycles.

The most recent one was in June 2023 and needless to mention, BTC had a remarkable rally (its first of the Bull Cycle) after it. From a time perspective within the Cycle, the June 2023 Cross, resembles the Bullish Crosses of November 2019 and December 2015. They were formed 25 and 23 months respectively after the High of the previous Cycle and following their formation, BTC peaked exactly 24 months (731 days) later.

The June 2023 MACD Bullish Cross was formed 19 months after the previous Cycle High, so if it follows the previous peak patterns, then Bitcoin should peak around June 2025. Symmetrically, it appears that we are currently in a above 0.786 Fib consolidation phase (blue circles) as November 2020 and February 2017.

The bullish break-outs that followed after such consolidations, initiated the Bull Cycles' 2nd rallies to the eventual ATH. If we were to make a rough projection on that high, we can look into the Channel Up since 2014. That pattern formed the Cycle Highs above it every time (red arcs), so technically we could be looking at values between 200k - 300k.

However even if we follow a 'conservative' path within the Channel Up, if BTC hits the top of that dotted Channel, it will reach a price as high as $150000, which in our opinion is a very desirable level to start taking long-term profits.

But what do you think about this whole scenario? Is the 1M MACD Bullish Cross symmetry about to start the 2nd rally of this Cycle and if yes, can it reach 150k at least? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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