Fibonacci Spirals Predict Doom for Bitcoin

2015년 3월 20일

As you can see the blue spiral is drawn from the beginning and end of Wave A, and on a 1:1 scale, hits the peak of Wave C perfectly. This spiral ended up being a very good resistance level in this position at this scale. So with that knowledge you could expect that it would continue to act as resistance and that Wave E will probably not go past it. Based on this new information, I tried to make some new targets for the end of Wave E. This prediction is based off of ABCD harmonic and the yellow spiral, which bounces off of the two highlighted points perfectly. Along with it being a perfect 0.618 retracement of Wave D, as well as a slew of other fibs that line up right on that point (which I hid to reduce clutter), I figure that this is a good spot for Wave E to end with regards to price and time.

I mentioned in my other chart Wave E is very difficult to predict, so this just gives us some new information to look for. Remember to always let the new incoming information organize itself, instead of trying to massage it into old categories!

Let's see how this plays out. :)

I want to add this chart, It shows the spirals on a daily timeframe and how each major dump has followed a spiral channel which have progressively gotten tighter with each dump: (this chart is on a 3:1 scale)


To elaborate further on the spirals:
They seem to be very harmonic with other Fibonacci measurements, and when viewed at certain scaling, they can act as very good s/r levels and time indicators. As you can see from the daily timeframe, the last three major drops have occurred within fib spiral-channels when the individual spirals are drawn from the beginning of a to the end of the a and from the begging of a to the end of c of each of the major corrections preceding the major drops, with scaling set to 3:1 (see tradingview.com/v/9mu8vosa/).

The daily chart is something I discovered a little over 5 weeks ago. It seems that since we have broken out of the yellow spiral (which connects one of the major downswings and the ATH) we will get a major move either in the up or down direction. However, it seems that we made an attempt at an upswing and failed, and are now beginning a major decline based on the alligators trend changing pretty violently to the downside, and the spiral resistance on the 12H 1:1 timeframe. Although, if we start to break upwards, beginning with breaking the 12H spiral, we will most likely continue in that direction. There's an old Chinese proverb: "Unless we change directions, we are likely to end up where we are headed."

My strategy when trading them is just as an early indicator of bullish/bearishness because, generally, if you get a direct bounce off a spiral you will usually continue in that direction, so long as you scaled your chart properly. And since this 12H spiral already acted as major resistance you can expect for it to be a sign of bullishness if it gets broken (it should close above the spiral, not necessarily just a wick). If we break above the spiral the next major bullish signal would be breaking above 294. In which case the daily trend will probably continue going up and we will start another major uptrend. However, I think the likely scenario here is that the spirals act as resistance and we somewhat follow the trend on the daily timeframe down into the 100s or below. Once we break out of all these large spirals then I believe that is when we will start the next major rise.

Here is a minor edit to this chart. I remembered that if I just connected the yellow spiral to one of the other points on the spiral it essentially creates the same spiral without having to use an imaginary anchor. I also made some slight adjustments to the targets, and you can see the circle unhidden on this chart.