Down to 6300 and then up to 6900-7000

2018년 7월 4일

Hello!

As pointed out in last quick update: “… 4H TF: bitcoin slowed-down its run near EMA182. And in order to cool-down overheated TIs - bitcoin might go to M/BB (SMA20) or M/KC (EMA20) ~6400-6450..." As you can see we have reached these points. So, bitcoin turned down from the upper bands of the channels (BB, KC, DC) for testing the middle bands. Let us analyze further possible movements.

1) At the 4H time frame: Bitcoin is actively testing middle bands, with the technical closure below these channels (aka SMA/EMA20), which potentially should increase the pressure downward. Tis are neutral, but if you apply a retrospective analysis - then still TIs have bullish projection. EMA 6, 9, 12 are mixed, but the same mix was observed on 2 July, after which the impulse went up.

2) At 5H time frame (I use 5H to smooth the noise from 4H): Bitcoin did not close below M/KC (EMA20), and overall 5H TIs and MAs more confidently indicate that we should also expect the upward momentum.

3) At the daily time frame: Bitcoin is tight in the middle bands of the channels. And in general, yesterday's candle closed above M/KC (EMA20), but below EMA26 and EMA30 - thus the bulls missed the time to develop the trend. TIs indicate the possibility of downward to M/BB (SMA20) and lower to M/DC.

Conclusion: The current pull-back was within the last forecast, so it would be prudent to start building long position (on increasing basis), which I also wrote yesterday. Opened long at 4H U/KC (20;1) ~6550, 4H middle bands channels (BB, KC, DC) ~6450. Also, there is a possibility of a lower back-test to daily M/BB ~6350 and daily M/DC ~ 6300, where it is also recommended to open a long. SL will be placed below daily L/KC (20; 1). My targets: daily EMA50 ~6900-7000, and then daily EMA100 ~7600-7700.

Good luck!

2018년 7월 5일

노트

Quick update.

At 4H time-frame, bitcoin successfully tested M/KC (EMA20) and M/BB (SMA20), which have an upward trend. TIs are still on the side of the bulls, although they are trying to take a neutral position. MA-analysis is also in favor of the bulls with some “but”: bitcoin could not hold above SMA/EMA 182 and 200, but the ascending SMA10, 20 and a whole plate of upward "spaghetti" EMA (6, 9, 12, 20, 26, 30, 50 , 60, 91, 100) - are pushing to break up.

At the daily time frame, bitcoin continues to sit tightly above M/KC (EMA20) and M/BB (SMA20), which are shifting from an neutral projection to an upward trend. U/BB began to expand, HA also "launch" upward shadows. As for the MA-analysis: we have a downward pressure of SMA30 (today might be broken up), as well as sandwich: EMA (20, 26, 30), based on positive EMA (6, 9, 12).

Also, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that many traders started to close longs at these levels (decline of Longs from 35200 to 34200), and shorts are not opened (decline of Shorts from 23100 to 22700).

Conclusion: there is a small probability that bitcoin will go to L/KC (20; 1) ~6400 or L/BB ~6300, but then such decline will "break" a whole series of MAs, and so far I do not see much expediency from the Long/Shorts. I expect the opposite, the development of the trend up to daily EMA50 ~6900-7000. My longs 6450 and 6550 are active. If it turns out that I'm wrong, then I'll try to set SL to have "zero" trade for these longs.

Good luck to all.

2018년 7월 6일

노트

Bitcoin makes attempts to go below daily M/KC (EMA20), so lower ranges might be reached, this would be daily M/BB (SMA20) ~6385 and daily M/DC ~6300, with lower quick touch to daily L/KC (20;1) ~6200.

At all these points I will enlarge my long position (on increasing basis) if this pull-back applies so deep. Still I have longs 6550 and 6450.

Have a good day.