What the COT Tool shows us right now in Bitcoin

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report gives a snapshot of the minds of professional traders.

It means that while they spend 100% of the time knowing our positions, because they are our brokers and bankers, we get a 5% glimpse once a week into theirs.

While we only see a small sample of the positions (just the ones on the futures exchanges basically), it IS representative of the way they think. All you have to do is look at historical data to see how they get it right most of the time.

Bear in mind that futures are used to hedge positions too, so it is the change in the numbers that is more important than the raw number.

What can we see now?

In between the vertical red lines, the pro's bought BTC futures, so the blue line of net positions rose, almost to the point where it would have been net positive.

Since the recent pump up to ~$30k, they have been selling it off. It's almost back to the lows. This is very definitely NOT bullish.

When you add the line that I have called an Inversion line, which is a classic charting pattern, where the price tends to stay one side or the other for long periods, and the only question in my mind is:

"Do we have a last pop at $32k just to get all the sheep to buy before we drop it again?"

We are BULLISH on Bitcoin, just not from here. I am long but have lightened up at 29k and waiting for 32k

If you don't believe this is manipulated, see my associated idea on the subject:

If you want the COT tool, it's free on our website.