Bitcoin adventures - long or short?
업데이트됨
Time to go back to the basics and apply the KISS principle. Bitcoin is having great adventures again, but what can we expect going forward - just a quick 5 - hopefully educational - cents to complement other authors' analysis.
Here above a relatively basic chart on the daily tells us a couple of things:
--> The MACD is nearing quite the bullish cross. Every time this happened in the past, a nice gain followed.
--> The RSI is generally aligned with the MACD, it shows us relatively clear confirmations of the buy signals. Also in this case.
--> CCI is not shown but is in line with the RSI (currently quite strongly in the oversold region)
--> We are at the lower end of the Bollinger bands (but note that the lower boundary of the band is still in a negative trend)
So... The daily chart ALMOST tells us to buy (not yet, but we are close). BUT: important remark: we also have to look at the weekly chart, and... that one tells us a different story! The MACD there is currently closing quite the death cross, and we are just above the half line of the Bollinger bands, which would imply more room to fall is not impossible.
In general, I would assume that this could more or less be translated into: some more blood, then a nice upward recovery, and then some more blood. Also look at how the Fibonnaccis interact in this story. On the daily, the 50% level was tested yesterday. Today, we see a test of the 61,8% level. Probably the most prudent way would be to start accumulating a position gradually, taking advantage of any further dips (or if the trend starts to show us clearer skies, on the dips in the upward channel), but remain somewhat at the sidelines, keeping dry powder. Especially for the ones intending to hold for some time.
Note that this is by no means to be considered as formal investment advice
Here above a relatively basic chart on the daily tells us a couple of things:
--> The MACD is nearing quite the bullish cross. Every time this happened in the past, a nice gain followed.
--> The RSI is generally aligned with the MACD, it shows us relatively clear confirmations of the buy signals. Also in this case.
--> CCI is not shown but is in line with the RSI (currently quite strongly in the oversold region)
--> We are at the lower end of the Bollinger bands (but note that the lower boundary of the band is still in a negative trend)
So... The daily chart ALMOST tells us to buy (not yet, but we are close). BUT: important remark: we also have to look at the weekly chart, and... that one tells us a different story! The MACD there is currently closing quite the death cross, and we are just above the half line of the Bollinger bands, which would imply more room to fall is not impossible.
In general, I would assume that this could more or less be translated into: some more blood, then a nice upward recovery, and then some more blood. Also look at how the Fibonnaccis interact in this story. On the daily, the 50% level was tested yesterday. Today, we see a test of the 61,8% level. Probably the most prudent way would be to start accumulating a position gradually, taking advantage of any further dips (or if the trend starts to show us clearer skies, on the dips in the upward channel), but remain somewhat at the sidelines, keeping dry powder. Especially for the ones intending to hold for some time.
Note that this is by no means to be considered as formal investment advice
노트
Would be great if someone could complement this with a good old EWT (Elliot Wave Theory) analysis!노트
Death cross in the MACD weekly:노트
Still waiting for the buy signal, but closing in on the daily with regard to MACD bullish cross :)
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