Bitcoin making an ABC to test the Bull Trend at 7000/7600

2020년 1월 23일

In my previous analysis i showed we would probably make a drop and bounce up, just as we did almost a year ago. Those weeks before we broke the big 4200 resistance. As soon as i happened i noticed that the volume was low and therefore doubting a continuation of the move up. Instead of going up, the move up only completed a bear flag and we have been dropping since.

Now the whole move up we had past weeks is pretty strong and real, mostly because volume was good but also because the alt market was even greater. So unless whales are playing with us, the rally was carried through the whole market, which is something i like to see.

For the ones who are not aware of my bigger picture plan, assuming this wave up has ended, i want to see a retest of the lows at least one more time before becoming a mid/long term bull. Prefer to even see 7000/200 get tested, but 7600/7800 would be decent as well. This could happen with the ABC correction i have shown on the left. Important to see volume doesn't get too big, preferably see it stay lower than the volume we had during the rally.

On the right i am showing something that looks like a wedge. Since we dropped quite fast since the 9200, it would fit the picture perfectly to see a move up before we continue down again. 8500/50 is a resistance here, think if that one breaks, the ABC up will become likely. Ideally we see it move up towards 8800/850 and then down again. Think 8900 should be the max here.

While i am writing this, can see we are already making a smal bounce, but as bulls need to break 8500ish before becoming short term bullish.

If this all plays out and we test low 7K's again, i might try my luck and build a position to hold for a few months.


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Previous analysis:

2020년 1월 23일

노트

Funny market, past hour or so, there was a 12 mil buy order in the market, not really buying but trying to push up the price. It didn't really work, but price did move though. Could be a coincidence as well, that the market would have gone up anyway. Price did go up from 8380 to 8425.

But the breakout was weak and low volume and dropped back to the 8400/380. Then as price was slipping, a market sell of 7.8 mil happened pushing price down even more. Quite sure this 7.8 was the same person, because the 12 bought up a lot but not all of it. Funny how a single person can have so much influence.

Anyway, price should find support here, otherwise chances increase we make a new low. Maybe another bull shake out towards 8200/250 or so. But think it has to end there though, otherwise the wedge i have shown, will probably become invalid

2020년 1월 24일

노트

There it was, another shake out, exactly what this market loves to do. Using other peoples losses as fuel to move the price.

As we can see now, we are against the resistance line of the wedge i have shown, making the wedge even more real now it seems. Looks like i have drawn the line correctly, but there is always some margin there. At the moment, there is no rejection, so it could be bulls will keep the pressure on and push it through and make another jump up. If we drop, there is room up until 8350/70 max i think, creating something like a bull flag against this resistance.