I don't usually use dma/ema for BTC analysis, but since lately it has become more correlated with equity markets, so I thought I'd start looking at it, and not surprisingly these levels have been working very well in predicting the range of BTC behavior.
I've been indicating for many days that the 54980 level (coinciding w the 50 ema) was proving as significant resistance until Saturday, when this resistance was broken (see prior ideas below). However, BTC was rejected precisely at the 50 dma and we find ourselves back at 54980, which is also essentially the 50 ema.
This either represents a trading range, a retest of the 54980 level (50 ema), or we're headed back down. I'm leaning towards down, as the equity markets seem to be a house of cards and would very likely take BTC down with them.
Meanwhile, at the current rate the pi cycle cross is roughly 14 days away, which in past cycles would indicate a top within 3 days of the crossing, but it doesn't seem as if we're anywhere near an ATH or parabolic upward move. Thus, this indicator is likely to be invalidated in this current cycle. It's backward looking as was generated to fit the prior cycle tops, so this should come as no surprise given the different investor base and knowledge level of market participants in this cycle vs the cycle that peaked in 2017.
I've been indicating for many days that the 54980 level (coinciding w the 50 ema) was proving as significant resistance until Saturday, when this resistance was broken (see prior ideas below). However, BTC was rejected precisely at the 50 dma and we find ourselves back at 54980, which is also essentially the 50 ema.
This either represents a trading range, a retest of the 54980 level (50 ema), or we're headed back down. I'm leaning towards down, as the equity markets seem to be a house of cards and would very likely take BTC down with them.
Meanwhile, at the current rate the pi cycle cross is roughly 14 days away, which in past cycles would indicate a top within 3 days of the crossing, but it doesn't seem as if we're anywhere near an ATH or parabolic upward move. Thus, this indicator is likely to be invalidated in this current cycle. It's backward looking as was generated to fit the prior cycle tops, so this should come as no surprise given the different investor base and knowledge level of market participants in this cycle vs the cycle that peaked in 2017.
