BTC bullish and bearish scenarios mid-term

2018년 5월 10일

There are many different EW counts that kind-of fit to the price-action from $6500 onward (or from the "short-squeeze" that started the recent bull-run). If we take some other indicators into account though, we can establish the more likely count to be this: We have completed 5 waves from the start of the short-squeeze, and are now in a correction that has all the signs of a bigger wave-2 (considering the whole run up as bigger wave 1). In fact, it looks like we are currently in the B-wave of the ABC correction. The fact that there is very little volume at the moment confirms this. Also there is a regular bearish divergence on the daily chart. There can be hidden bullish divergences here also as well as on some lower time-frames, but this regular bearish divergence looks a lot more convincing.
Next up, there is the Kumo cloud. We are inside of the cloud now, and usually the borders of the cloud act as support and resistance. Also, usually price-action "exits" the cloud on the opposite border from where it entered. If we apply these rules, we can see that the bottom of the cloud coincides with the 0.5 fib retracement (around $8500) of bigger wave 1, and is also a 1:1 extension of the A-wave, considering we get rejected soon at the trend-line around $9500 to start wave C. So the area marked "Target 0" is a heavy confluence zone and likely correction target, before a possible bigger Wave-3 starts.
At that moment, we are facing the upper border of the kumo-cloud which again coincides with a nice 1:1 extension of the bigger Wave-1. But that area ($11600) is also a critical, historical resistance area, where we will only get through with enough volume and momentum. The kumo cloud could as well act as added resistance in that case, and we could get rejected HARD! In that case it is even possible that we end up crashing back down to the 6-6.5k area, and if that happens, I doubt it will hold this time.
Please be aware that I am a noob, am not giving financial advice and I am probably totally wrong anyway. Trade safe.