BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Double Bottom, I'm Bullish
Hello and welcome to another 
BTCUSD analysis!
Like most people, I thought we were heading for a dip with a head and shoulders pattern this weekend (in purple). However, that has been invalidated as the price broke above the right shoulder last night. Does this mean we now have a double bottom (in orange)? The confirmation for that would come at the resistance of the left side of the W at ~$51,650 (it might even get there before I post this analysis :D ).
The volume is fairly low, but it is the weekend, so I'm not sure if we can take that into account (this is my first analysis on the weekend).
Interestingly, we can see that when the H&S pattern was invalidated was also when the MACD lines crossed into the positive territory. This is a confirmation of the uptrend. However, there isn't a massive separation between the lines, which means that price will stay more or less stable. On the other hand, if you look at the last big bull rally (18-19 Feb) where we had 5 green candles in sequence, we can see that the lines weren't that separate either. But, we are already at 5 green candles in sequence, and we haven't had a sequence of more than 5 positive candles since January. Why look into the sequence of red and green candles? Because BTC is very volatile, so it's rare that it will go only up or only down for a long time. So, in conclusion, the MACD has 2 signs of going positive, but the candlestick have a sign of going negative.
The RSI is at 60%, which means that there is a bit of resistance for the price to go much higher. Put it in another way, it hasn't reached 70% (which is when the market thinks it's overpriced). This means that the market thinks it's a little above its value, but not that much - not enough to signal that it is overpriced (usually a great time to sell because it will likely fall). So, from and RSI perspective, it looks like the price is finding its new value between ~48k and ~52k, with some room for reaching the previous ATH of ~57k.
Conclusion/TLDR:
Let's put everything together now:
* We have 4 indications that the price will go up
* We have 1 indicators that the price will go down
Therefore, my position is bullish. I think it will go up to at least ~52k in the next ~12 hours.
Disclaimer: this is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is very risky. Please only invest what you can afford to lose.
BTCUSD analysis!Like most people, I thought we were heading for a dip with a head and shoulders pattern this weekend (in purple). However, that has been invalidated as the price broke above the right shoulder last night. Does this mean we now have a double bottom (in orange)? The confirmation for that would come at the resistance of the left side of the W at ~$51,650 (it might even get there before I post this analysis :D ).
The volume is fairly low, but it is the weekend, so I'm not sure if we can take that into account (this is my first analysis on the weekend).
Interestingly, we can see that when the H&S pattern was invalidated was also when the MACD lines crossed into the positive territory. This is a confirmation of the uptrend. However, there isn't a massive separation between the lines, which means that price will stay more or less stable. On the other hand, if you look at the last big bull rally (18-19 Feb) where we had 5 green candles in sequence, we can see that the lines weren't that separate either. But, we are already at 5 green candles in sequence, and we haven't had a sequence of more than 5 positive candles since January. Why look into the sequence of red and green candles? Because BTC is very volatile, so it's rare that it will go only up or only down for a long time. So, in conclusion, the MACD has 2 signs of going positive, but the candlestick have a sign of going negative.
The RSI is at 60%, which means that there is a bit of resistance for the price to go much higher. Put it in another way, it hasn't reached 70% (which is when the market thinks it's overpriced). This means that the market thinks it's a little above its value, but not that much - not enough to signal that it is overpriced (usually a great time to sell because it will likely fall). So, from and RSI perspective, it looks like the price is finding its new value between ~48k and ~52k, with some room for reaching the previous ATH of ~57k.
Conclusion/TLDR:
Let's put everything together now:
* We have 4 indications that the price will go up
* We have 1 indicators that the price will go down
Therefore, my position is bullish. I think it will go up to at least ~52k in the next ~12 hours.
Disclaimer: this is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is very risky. Please only invest what you can afford to lose.
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