Black Swan Incoming (Part 2)

8월 5일

The series continues as Bitcoin fails to invalidate my thesis. This is most likely the start of the crash rather than the end. The first diagonal support comes in at 45-48k.

Check out Part 1 above first.

The Topping Fractal Strikes Again

The entire move is orchestrated time and time again. You can see from Part 1 that 7-10 year wallets shifted massive amounts of Bitcoin right when we get this same topping pattern appearing. Coincidence? I think not. This is the third time it's happened now.

You can see from the chart above we failed to break retracement levels.

Chainlink Fractal

What you are currently seeing above is REAL, it is happening. I thought about this possibly happening when I was actively trading this fractal back in 2023.

This is the Chainlink fractal from last cycle overlaid to this current cycle.

I traded this fractal back in 2023 and when I overlaid and saw that the Covid crash lined up with my Fib time, I thought, is it possible we get a crash in August 2024?

I was going over this possibility in 2023! Mind-blowing. If the fractal plays out, that means that the bottom is basically in for LINK and the bull market starts now, with a top in September 2025. Anyways, I will post a different TA on LINK.

The Million Dollar Question
Is the double bottom in or not? I have wrestled with this question for months, over a year maybe. While all other analysts and everyone else is convinced that the double bottom is in, I have never been 100% sold on it.

What do I mean? Well, since the first Bitcoin cycle, we have formed a double bottom before the bull market starts.

As you can see, we always form a double bottom. If we repeat history, that means that Bitcoin will retest the 20k area.


Everyone is convinced that this is the double bottom, but I have never been sold on this theory, especially when we have a CME GAP at 21k!

Mayer Multiple Bands

We can see that the last band is at 26k. For now, the worst case would be that price point.

USDT Dominance Chart

I was watching this closely. We were forming an ascending channel for a while. Bullish for USDT dominance means bad for the market. What is interesting is that we hit the same level in March 2022.

Very interesting.

Hash Ribbon First Failure?

Will the hash ribbon fail completely this time? Last time it fired off a buy signal, it dumped 17% before going on a massive multi-month rally. We are currently down 29% since its buy.


Fear and Greed



Conclusion
"IF" we even get a bull market, it will most likely start in 2025.


We need to get interest rates under 2.5% at least. We have never had a bull market with rates so high. First cycle: 0%, second: 0.5-2.5%, and third cycle: 0%.