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The Battle of BEARLIN in May '23

업데이트됨

Drew this bear scenario at end of the 2021 bull cycle to keep me grounded to all possible outcomes. Have to say, didn't listen to my own logic. Now despite there being weeks of bears retreating we will keep going down until May '23 - the measured length of the last recession in 2008-2009 which lasted aroun 510 days. That being said I could be longer and much worse. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Lesson Learned: After an accelerated FED-fueled market boom there will always be a giant bust incoming.

노트

Update; a bunch of big macro movers happening live:
+additional FED interest rate hikes and further hikes planned,
+ECB interest rate hike,
both driving investment sentiment towards deleveraging.
+the latest "inflation reduction act" that will probably increase inflation and
+the latest student debt cancellation are all a form of a stimulus being airdropped into peoples laps. The bubble gets bigger, the impending blow-up more fierce.

And the biggest macro mover of all: the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine. As the war progresses, EU and NATO look to be more and more squeezed into a corner as all the economic countermeasures backfire and the energy prices skyrocket, like Dogecoin after Musk endorsed it.

Prediction stays the same. Approaching the double trendline support, looking to break it.

노트

Steadily progressing towards Bearlin town. ECB pushing interest rates higher, rumors about Credit Suisse going under on monday and BOE proping up the bond market in order to “restore orderly market conditions”. Sure looks like QE which in translation means "fuck it, print more monies, inflation not a problem rn". Despite genesis block message from Satoshi, bitcoin not a hedge in 2022 (scribles note in rulebook after 90% HODL paper loss).

Might not go all the way down so *despite* this being super bear narrative we are now beginning to see value on many charts. Put it this way, its better to buy spot now than buying anytime in the last 18 months.