OMG, What a Joke, Is this the New Standerd for Bitcoin?

2020년 1월 26일

Look at this crap, when i looked at the chart today, that move we had yesterday and going up again today, it hit me. Damn, we had the same thing not so long ago.

Now when zooming in, there are even more similarities. Both had a big rally, with current one of course being much bigger. Then moving down in the shape of a wedge. Then the ugly yellow zone, looking all bearish at the low, but then simply just moving back up again.

When i posted my analysis yesterday, i was not aware of this "fractal" unfortunately. Because even though i am short term bullish, i thought chances for a tiny drop to 8200ish would be more likely than just going up.

Now the question is, will it continue to follow the same pattern? Which means we get bored with a slow move up, only to eventually drop again. This of course fits my picture (almost) perfectly, thinking to see a bigger correction down in the 7K's. But, this "fractal", says we probably stay below the 8600, which is enough for an ABC, but i preferred to see 8700/8800.

I would not give this too much value, have not seen this P&D&P before like this, so could just be a coincidence.

It all doesn't matter that much though, end game, is hoping to see a nice drop in the 7K's, seeing a bottom formation first, to be given the chance to build up a nice long term long position.

A zoom out of the picture:






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Previous analysis:

2020년 1월 27일

노트

Now it has become clear about the wedge, adjusting the resistance line was the correct thing to do, since it touched it several times now to the point almost, which gives value to the pattern.

For now, the move up looks pretty good and strong, but the volume is not great, so because of that, still a realistic chance this is all just a correction up.

The move up is also stronger/more convincing than the "fractal", so think best not to focus on the details of the fractal.

I think, that if we would make a right shoulder now (or after touching 8750/8800), good chance my big ABC is probably wrong and we might get another good wave up. I

If we continue to go up from here, but low volume and a slower pace, then i think chances for the ABC will increase.

Volume is VERY important in this range now. Think 9000 is also the KEY level between continuing the rally or not, for me it's not 9200.

You can also see a range, between the green and red. Think that one is also important. Breaking below the support, probably means the ABC is in play. Breaking the resistance, well just mentioned the 2 scenario's above.

2020년 1월 27일

노트

This is always a tricky situation with Bitcoin. We have been moving up in a straight line, with volume that has picked a bit past hours. At the moment, looks like we have a wedge, but i can see this one, could go both ways. Only thing i can say is, the longer we stay bumping against the high, bigger the chances we go up. Because of the wedge, if we break up, could be a squeeze even of like 100/300 points.

If we break the support line, but move sideways and stay above the green, than chances for up remain higher than down. If we break the green zone around 8740ish, than maybe we can see a drop, but the target is only around 8700ish, which is not that meaningfull yet

2020년 1월 27일

노트

Sorry, working with laptop on my lap, the target is 8550/600 and NOT 8700. I have drawn another line for the wedge as well.

Crap, i see now that Binance, is not really showing a wedge here. So might be wrong about it. Sorry about that :), i only saw Bitcoin on Bitmex on my phone, pulled out my laptop thinking i need to hurry before the wedge breaks. So did not check other things.

I see now, Binance shows a much cleaner support line, just bounced up again from it, so think it has value. Meaning, as long as price stays above it, bulls are in favor. If it breaks, could be the start of a correction towards 8600