BTC on log scale

1. We didn't had a breakout of current downtrend on logscale yet. If we get to 8800-ish next few days, it would be clear, will we break this downtrend up, or go down again. If we break it, we could have a nice bullrun then.
2. Which way the current situation resembles more? The downtrend of 2013, when we continued to go up soon after breakout, or downtrend of 2014, when we had a breakout, but eventually got caught into a larger and more smooth downtrend formation? I think it's more like 2013.
3. If we break this triangle formation not up, but down, we could easily go to a 3000 area. We had been below major trendline for awhile now, and that bothers me.