BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching The Pinbar.

2017년 10월 6일

BTCUSD Update: Bearish candle has appeared on the 24 hour chart. A break of the 4280 low triggers the shooting star like pattern which often leads to significant selling momentum.

The candle is present, but it is not in effect until the low is taken out. Once 4280 is broken, it is reasonable to expect price to retrace back to the 4104 support and possibly lower. Since the potential signal is on a larger time frame, the magnitude of the move will most likely be larger.

If the bearish momentum builds, this is the move that can take price back to the 3867 to 3705 support zone which is the .618 area of the recent bullish swing. If price falls below that, then the next support area is 3560 to 3310 which is the adjusted .618 of the entire bullish swing from the recent bottom. It is in these zones where it is reasonable to expect price to react and possibly find new stability. There is no way to know until these zones are reached again.

Price gave a similar signal on the weekly chart before the recent selloff, so it will be interesting to see if this signal leads to a similar outcome. To review the factors that build an argument for a broader selloff: Price never cleared the 4550 upper range of this wide resistance zone, price formed a minor resistance within the zone (minor .618 of bearish swing), and now the 24 hour time frame is showing a pin bar (shooting star like candle). If there is anything that says don't go long now, this is it.

ETH has formed some interesting structure at the same time, but if BTC sells off, I expect ETH and the rest of the coins to follow, especially since none of them pushed any significant highs.

I have been bearish and avoiding any swing trade longs in these markets because of the wave count and hesitant price action (although there have been plenty of small time frame opportunities). Keep in mind, anything is possible which means even though the pin bar is present, does not mean it will trigger, but it certainly should not be ignored. If the market manages to stay above the 4280 trigger, that can lead to strength IF 4550 manages to get taken out, I just think this scenario is much less likely, especially in the face of the pin bar.

For smaller time frame traders, the break of the 4280 low can offer short opportunities, but again you must have your well defined plan and know how to manage your risk. I do not have the time to write evaluations for day trading in these markets, but for those who have experience, my analysis should certainly provide some context in terms of levels and expectations.

In summary, this market may finally be preparing for a decisive move. Pin bars on large time frames do not appear often, so when they do, they certainly call for attention. The break of 4280 can possibly lead to the selling that I have been writing about for weeks now. I have been doing this long enough to know that eventually the market will line up for the kind of opportunities that are in within the scope of my plan. That does not mean you have to stay flat also. I encourage you to use the levels and other information to gain perspective for shorter time frame trading (if you have the time). The best thing you can do is learn to make your own independent decisions. That is why no matter what is going on, what news is coming out, what other traders are writing about, I stick to my plan and how it relates to the price action.

Comments and questions welcome.