Bitcoin Elliott Wave (An Objective View)

Is there an objective way to label Elliott waves, putting aside personal emotion ?


The following is my answer.


Lets start with the basics, elliott wave is really a series of impulse waves followed by corrective waves.

Assumption A
Impulse waves are faster than corrective waves, i.e cover more price territory in less time than corrective waves.

So if price has been declining in a corrective wave, the impulse that follows should retrace the correction in less time and go above the previous high.
Take a look at the correction in boxD which is roughly 14 months long, if the wave that begins in boxU was an impulse it should have retraced the
entire correction in less than 14 months, but it did not. This means that if you accept Assumption A then the rally from 2015 is really still a part of the
correction that began in 2013, i.e we are currently still in a Wave 2 correction.

Assumption B
Wave 3 should be larger than Wave 1

Wave 1 in bitcoin is roughly 1000X ( 1 to 1000 ), so Wave 3 should have gone to (200 * 1000) 200K at minimum. A 1.618 fibonacci extension to (200 * 1618) 320K would be more likely.
But Wave 3 is only 100X (200 to 20K). The wave from 2015 is not Wave 3. Therefore bitcoin is still in Wave 2.

Conclusion:
Based on price velocity and structure, bitcoin is still in a flat corrective structure, most likely a Wave 2 because of its short price history.
The C wave of a flat can retrace all or some fibonacci ratio of the prior B wave.