Bitcoin fractals, Holy Guacamole :),Great Guidelines so far

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As my followers of the past have seen, some fractals have given me almost some perfect entry and exit points the past week. Last week i said we should be turn up around 8700 after that 1000 point drop, even showed how that big bear flag could turn out. Next turning point was the 9300 high where (according to the fractal as well) we should drop again to test the strength of the bulls and make a higher low around 9000/8900. From that point on we should go up again (as we did), Bitcoin followed that fractal perfectly up until a few days ago, where it failed to make a higher high at 9450 (something i warned that could happen up front in my updates). Around that point i pulled out this fractal you can also see in this chart.

So far it has been following this fractal quite perfectly. I was flat for a few days, until i saw that failed attempt to go higher at 9350 yesterday and it made a drop to 9200. There i went short at 9240 because it was almost certain the first fractal was not in play anymore and the new one was taking over. Since than it has dropped 400 points making this trade a profitable already. I have moved my stop towards my entry level for a free trade. my followers now i have guided them the whole weekend where i could, but there was just to many mixed signals to really say (with confidence) what was going on. Until yesterday, more alts were showing signs of top formation as well and the combination of all these factors (and a few more of course :)) told me to go short. Showing patience is the most profitable way of trading sometimes

Last week when Bitcoin was following the bullish fractal and it broke out of the smaller triangle, things were looking very good. Some Alts were getting pumped as well (but i mentioned i don't trust these orchestrated pumps for even a second!!!). But bullish momentum was slowing down and we all know what happened next. Bitcoin has made a bigger triangle from which we dropped out of yesterday. The targets are clear, you can see them in the chart. But don't get to bearish yet, the 8700ish support is a very big and important support level. Price could bounce up again from here, but i only give it 25% that it will hold this time, but only IF we get there!

Bulls need to keep it above the 8800/8900 for a while, take away short term bearish momentum, go sideways and try to force a higher low on the bigger time frame. If they manage to do that we could still see higher prices on the short term. We are still inside a small bear flag, it has dropped out already but the Bulls are trying to push it back in again as i am writing this. If they fail and it becomes a simple retracement, that we could see an acceleration down again and than the 8700 will probably break. So it looks like we are at an important turning point now. I know Crypto investors are not happy with this information (perhaps), but for the day traders it's good because the chances increase that we may see some volatility again! Doesn't matter which direction, as long as it moves and we start to see some real fighting between bears and bulls again.

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Don't take it personal if i don't answer all the comment questions and the PM messages, i just can't keep up anymore but i am really trying.

David

Previous analysis

New scary Fractal for Bitcoin, looks like a Drop again

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The bear flag, bulls are still trying but i think they won't make it this time. But there is still hope, the 8900 gave good support the last time, could happen again but the chances are smaller this time

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the bulls are fighting back now, almost invalidating that bear flag. The killed the speed of the drop at least, if they manage to get it above that red resistance area they will bring the battle field in balance again, making it almost 50/50 to where we might go.
Larger time frame still says down, it clearly fell out of the triangle and all this may be a desperate attempt to to get back in it. If they get above the 9100/9200 again, than we may assume the weight of the triangle is gone as well.

When we look to the left of the chart, we see that moment where i said we could find support around the 8900 and go up again (according to the previous fractal). the raly from the low now is less strong, so the chances we see a similar move as than is smaller of course.

Not much to say, than look for a break of that red area or a break of the low, until than chances are we just move sideways

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Buyers are still here, their not save yet, but their clearly making an attempt to go higher again. I am already in the trade, did not take profit but going to leave my stop at entry level. Could still just be a retest of the triangle as resistance now

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Looks like this move up since yesterday, had turned into a bearish wedge/flag. It should fall out of it very soon, otherwise it won’t be valid

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Price is testing the breakout level of yesterday, while it is still inside that rising wedge. I think we are at a small turning point now. If bulls manage to get it above the 9200/9250, than the wedge gets invalidated AND the big triangle.

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The wedge is still i full play, but it should not take much longer. It should not drop out with sideways action, because than it could mean something else is going on.

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Here we can see the top formation much better, it's almost dropping out. Gdax has already broken the wedge, but other exchanges are holding it within the wedge.

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For this wedge to stay really valid, it should stay below the 9200

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And the volatility got killed again, my patience for this market is starting wear off. I used to say that an hour in bitcoin was like a whole day in the stock market, sometimes even more. But lately it’s just as boring as the stock market. Actually the stock market is even more exiting the last 2 months.

It still below the resistance line of the wedge, so Bulls are not in the clear yet. A push above 9200 would invalidate the wedge, but it would still mean nothing for the Bulls. Than things will only become 50/50 again

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So the wedge got invalidated. That last drop should have been it. Can’t really tell how high the Bulls can push it again, above 9300 will change that even more. I have put my stop around 9300 now, for a 60 point loss. Still feels like a correction downwards is being postponed, so taking a small risk

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So it did not push higher and stayed below the 9300. The wedge got turned into a rising channel from which (at some exchanges its almost dropping out. This one (Bitstamp) it's still in the safe zone.
But yesterday at some moments i could see that on Gdax Bitcoin was getting dumped while the other exchanges were stable. Difference went up to 90 points, i have not seen a difference of 30/40 points in more than a month. Taking away the squeezes up or down.